Krungsri Securities (KSS) expects PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG) to report normalized profit of approximately THB 55 million in 3Q26, down 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, falling short of its previous forecast due to weaker-than-expected sales of fuel and Punthai Coffee amid intensifying competition.
The oil business is expected to remain broadly stable, with fuel sales volume estimated at 1.432 billion litres, declining 10% YoY and 1% QoQ. Demand from agricultural customers has weakened as fuel prices remain elevated. However, the average marketing margin is projected at THB 1.85 per litre, up 10% YoY and 1% QoQ, supported by greater flexibility in retail pricing following the government’s request for diesel discounts from refineries.
In the non-oil segment, Punthai Coffee sales are forecast at THB 1.717 billion, increasing 14% YoY but falling 2% QoQ. This growth trails the expansion in its branch network, which increased 37% YoY and 4% QoQ, as higher living costs weigh on consumer purchasing power. Consequently, revenue growth is insufficient to offset an 8% YoY increase in selling, general, and administrative expenses associated with store expansion.
Profit contributions from the palm complex are also expected to decline 15% QoQ due to lower sales volumes amid weaker biodiesel demand.
Krungsri anticipates a sequential earnings recovery in 4Q26, supported by stronger fuel sales following the seasonal slowdown, stable marketing margins and a rebound in Punthai Coffee sales. On an annual basis, earnings are expected to remain broadly unchanged, as improved marketing margins offset lower fuel volumes from market-share losses and higher expansion-related expenses.
If the 3Q26 forecast is realized, PTG will record an estimated core loss of THB 80 million for the first nine months of 2026, compared with a THB 712 million profit a year earlier. Krungsri therefore sees downside risk of approximately THB 200 million to its full-year normalized profit forecast of THB 437 million, representing a 57% YoY decline.
Despite near-term market-share pressures, Krungsri maintains its ‘Buy’ recommendation and THB 9.50 target price. The brokerage expects the sector’s longer-term recovery to benefit from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, normalizing oil prices, improved marketing margins and purchasing power, alongside renewed non-oil business expansion.
