On Tuesday at 10:57 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) rose by 1.04% or THB 0.20 to THB 19.50, with a trading value of THB 580.80 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expects BGRIM to deliver stronger earnings in 3Q26, forecasting net profit of THB 797 million, up 17.9% QoQ and 53% YoY. The improvement is expected to come from higher electricity sales and service income, alongside a recovery in contributions from associates, while rising natural gas costs are likely to have a limited impact on SPP margins.
Excluding approximately THB 120 million in exceptional items from foreign exchange movements and tax adjustments, Finansia estimates core profit at THB 677 million, representing growth of 41.7% QoQ and 184.5% YoY.
Service income is expected to reach around THB 500 million, exceeding the brokerage’s previous forecast. This revenue stream includes overseas investment advisory services and data centre projects in Thailand. Electricity sales to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) are also expected to increase, supported by tariff rates approximately 25% higher YoY. Meanwhile, sales to industrial users are projected to edge down QoQ but remain above the same period last year.
Natural gas costs are forecast to rise to around THB 400/MMBtu, compared with THB 363/MMBtu in 2Q26. However, more than half of BGRIM’s industrial customers have adopted gas-linked electricity tariffs, helping the company mitigate fuel cost volatility and limit pressure on SPP margins.
Profit contributions from associates are expected to recover to THB 420 million, compared with THB 98 million in 2Q26 and a loss of THB 169 million in 3Q25. Gains from overseas assets denominated in US dollars, following the baht’s depreciation, are anticipated to support the improvement.
Looking ahead, Finansia anticipates relatively stable earnings in 4Q26 despite a further increase in gas costs to approximately THB 440/MMBtu. Higher contributions from South Korea’s Nakwol offshore wind project, supported by stronger generating capacity and seasonal conditions, should help offset the impact.
Following the expected 3Q26 performance, the brokerage has raised its 2026–2028 core profit forecasts by 10–25%. Normalized profit is now projected at THB 2.34 billion in 2026, THB 2.69 billion in 2027 and THB 2.93 billion in 2028.
Growth drivers include full-year contributions from Nakwol and revenue recognition from BGRIM’s data centre projects, with the first phase expected to begin contributing in 1Q27 and the second phase from 3Q27.
As a result, Finansia maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BGRIM with a target price of THB 21.70 per share, citing the company’s medium- to long-term growth potential from offshore wind power and data centre investments.
