1) Thai stock market overview
Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,632.62 points, decreased 8.72 points or 0.53% with a trading value of 59 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market closed lower due to the negative sentiment of rising inflation and tightening monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand also signaled for a faster-than-expected hike as well.
The analyst expected SET Index to move within the range next week and wait for other central banks’ decision on policy rate, giving a support level at 1,610-1,600 points and a resistance level at 1,650 points.
2) US May inflation consensus at 8.2%, down from last month
Ahead of the CPI report on Friday night, economists estimate that the consumer price index will rise between 8.5 – 8.0 percent year-over-year in May, with the US inflation consensus projected at 8.2 percent, a slight drop from the previous month.
Nomura and Morgan Stanley both predicted that the US inflation rate will increase by 8.5 percent annually in May, the same as in March.
Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, and Goldman anticipated the CPI would increase by 8.3 percent in May, while SocGen and Stifel forecasted an increase of 8.0 percent.
Economists believe that the market has been intensely focused on whether inflation has peaked, as this will affect the Federal Reserve’s prospective rate-hiking.
3) Refinery stocks fall in fears of GRM cuts by Ministry of Energy
Refinery stocks retreated on Friday after a report that the Minister of Energy is considering whether to intervene with the refining margin, looking to cut the currently high GRM to reduce the retail selling prices of diesel and gasoline at the oil stations.
FSSIA estimated that the potential impacts to Thai refiners’ earnings in 2H22 will range from 30-50% (20-40% if only applicable to diesel), from the lowest to the highest impacts for PTTGC, IRPC, BCP, TOP, ESSO, and SPRC.