Amid the Thai stock market entering a risk-off mode due to the Middle East crisis and global economic policy uncertainties, InnovestX Securities (INVX) maintains confidence that a strategy of investing in high-quality dividend stocks is the most effective “short-term safe haven” and “key to long-term wealth creation” at present.
Therefore, a short-term investment strategy (for the next three months) is recommended to park funds and capture the ex-dividend period in March–May 2026, which can cushion portfolio shocks and generate real returns while the market awaits clarity on negative factors. The recommendation is for stocks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, with a 2025 Div. Yield above 5% (after interim payouts), and low volatility (Beta < 1), including AP, BAM, KBANK, KKP, KTB, KTC, SIRI, TISCO, and TLI.
For long-term strategies aimed at sustainable returns, the recommendation is for stocks with a continuous dividend payment record of over 10 years, Div. Yield above 5%, and SETESG Rating of A–AAA, along with stable business, strong financial standing, and low volatility (Beta < 1), such as AP, DIF, KTB, PTT, TISCO.
A 10-year proof shows SET High-Dividend (SETHD) may not generate spectacular returns like big-cap stocks during a bull market, but during market storms, SETHD has proven to be a real winner, consistently outperforming SET and SET50 with a win rate as high as 70% (total return from index + dividend). SETHD has averaged an annual gain of 2.6%, higher than SET50 (+0.3%) and SET (-0.2%). Moreover, SETHD’s average annual Div. Yield is 5.1%, higher than SET50 (2.9%) and SET (3.0%), reaffirming that dividend investing is not only a safe haven but also a strategy for consistent positive returns.
When tensions rise in the Middle East, although SETHD drops alongside SET due to panic selling—a short-term psychological impact on global risk assets—SETHD is significantly more resistant to volatility due to a natural hedge from upstream energy stocks (PTTEP, PTT), which support the index as oil prices rise (SETHD has a higher weighting of these stocks and lacks growth stocks that are highly sensitive to negative factors, thus better withstanding market friction). Banks with attractive high Div. Yields and reasonable valuations also provide strong buying support, making them more resilient than SET. From March 2–4, 2026, SETHD fell only -4.6%, demonstrating more strength compared to major indices like SET, SET50, and SET100, which averaged -7.5%, reflecting that quality dividend stocks have become an effective “safe haven” today.
Over the past ten years, SET and mai have seen combined dividend payout growth averaging 4.6% per year. In 2025, the total dividend payout reached 650 billion baht, with SETHD’s Div. Yield surging to 6.6%, the highest ever recorded (10-year average is 4.9%), well above SET’s 3.7% (10-year average is 3.0%). This results from Thai listed companies increasing their ROE and conducting share repurchases, making dividend stocks a value zone worth accumulating for the goal of generating stable cash flow.
