Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects a robust first quarter for Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR), forecasting 1Q26 net profit at THB 1.38 billion, a 13% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter increase. The growth is driven by improvements in loans, yields, funding costs, insurance brokerage revenues, and a reduction in expected credit losses (ECL).
The absence of last quarter’s THB 140 million impairment write-off and reserve overlays, combined with lower funding expenses and seasonally reduced costs, provide a further earnings boost. The 1Q26 result is anticipated to achieve 24% of the full-year earnings target, with stronger loan growth expected in the second half as refinancing efforts show greater benefits.
Loan expansion remains cautious at just 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, following tighter underwriting, especially in southern regions impacted by recent floods, and a more conservative approach to truck lending amid ongoing Gulf war uncertainties. While this slows near-term growth, it enhances asset quality, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio expected to drop 5% quarter-on-quarter to 1.45%. The company’s conservative approach in 4Q25 — allocating a THB 240 million management overlay — builds a buffer against potential Middle East risks. Credit costs are forecast to ease to 2.6% (down from 3.62%), backed by a strong coverage ratio of 357%.
TIDLOR continues to lower funding costs by issuing THB 3.5 billion in three-year debentures at a 2.28% coupon to refinance maturing higher-cost debt, reducing overall funding costs in 1Q26 by 6 basis points.
Management and shareholder overhangs are also being addressed. Ms. Athitaya Phoonwathu has been appointed managing director, ensuring leadership continuity after Mr. Piyasak’s transition to a senior executive role until October. Additionally, the sale of a 3.08% stake to Hotai Finance (Taiwan) at THB 22.93 per share has received regulatory approval and is awaiting completion. KKPS maintains a BUY rating with a price objective of THB 21.00.
