Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG) to report a normalized profit of approximately THB 212 million for the second quarter of 2026, a decline compared to the previous quarter. This decrease is mainly attributable to seasonal factors affecting the Monsoon wind power project and the natural gas power plant in the United States.
Additionally, the company’s performance was negatively impacted by maintenance shutdowns at the Liberty and Patriot power plants. However, normalized profit is projected to grow year-on-year, supported by an increase in water volume in Laos, which has not yet been affected by the super El Niño phenomenon.
BCPG has also started to recognize positive contributions from the adjustment of the capacity payment rate for its power plants in the U.S., which has been increased to $329 per megawatt per day. In the second quarter of 2026, the company will recognize revenue from this new rate for roughly one month.
Should normalized profit in the second quarter meet the brokerage’s expectations, the figure for the first half of the year will account for approximately 43% of the full-year target.
For Q3, Yuanta anticipates that BCPG will report a normalized profit of THB 600–700 million, an increase from the previous quarter. This growth is expected to be driven by seasonal factors that benefit operational performance as well as the full-quarter recognition of the revised U.S. capacity payment rate.
Nevertheless, normalized profit in the third quarter is projected to be stable compared to the same period last year, as reduced water volume in Laos is expected, but this impact is likely to be offset by higher capacity payments from its U.S. power plants.
Although the divestment of power plants in the United States may exert pressure on the company’s future earnings, Yuanta views the proceeds from asset sales as enhancing BCPG’s investment capability. This would enable the company to accommodate rising electricity demand in line with Thailand’s new Power Development Plan.
As a result, Yuanta maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BCPG for long-term investment, with a target price of THB 9.90 per share.
