Krungsri Securities (KSS) projects that TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) will report a net profit of THB 5.40 billion for 3Q26, representing a 2% year-on-year increase but a 2% quarter-on-quarter decline. The profit growth compared to last year is mainly attributed to a 29% year-on-year rise in non-interest income, particularly from increased fee, service, and investment income. However, profits are slightly lower on a quarterly basis due to a 1% increase in operating expenses driven by higher IT costs.
Loan performance in 3Q26 is expected to see a marginal decline of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and a 2% decrease year-to-date, with contractions in both SME and retail segments. Net interest margin is projected to remain steady at 3.00%. The non-performing loan ratio is estimated to edge up to 2.95% from 2.93% in 2Q26, reflecting persistent economic uncertainty.
Krungsri expects TTB’s 4Q26 net profit to increase year-on-year, supported by continued growth in fee and service income, especially from the wealth business, but to decrease quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal peaks in operating expenses. Loans are anticipated to remain stable amid continued tight lending standards, while the NPL ratio is likely to rise further on ongoing economic challenges.
Following these, the brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for TTB with a target price of THB 3.50 for 2027. The outlook is supported by expected improvements in return on equity through 2027 from net profit growth (+3% YoY in 2026, +1% YoY in 2027), a planned increase in the dividend payout ratio to 70–75%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5% per annum, and the ongoing share buyback program with THB 14 billion remaining until 2028.
