Krungsri Securities maintained its Buy recommendation on Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM), with a target price of THB 8.80, after assessing the impact of a four-day toll exemption ordered during flooding in Bangkok and nearby areas.
The brokerage expects the financial effect on BEM to be limited, as revenue forgone from the free rides is expected to be reimbursed by the government. Krungsri also kept its 2026 earnings forecast unchanged at THB 3.9 billion, representing growth of 3.4% year-on-year.
The Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT) extended toll-free access on eight expressways for two additional days, covering September 28-29, after initially waiving fees on September 26-27. The policy applies to all toll roads operated by BEM, including the Chalerm Maha Nakhon Expressway, Si Rat Expressway, Prachim Ratthaya Expressway, and Udon Ratthaya Expressway.
Krungsri said discussions with BEM management indicated that the lost toll revenue from the four-day measure should be compensated by the government. However, the exact form of reimbursement—whether cash or another arrangement—as well as the timing, remains subject to further talks.
The brokerage noted that if compensation is not completed within September or the third quarter of 2026, BEM has yet to decide whether it can recognize normal revenue with a government receivable. The company will consult the government and auditors before finalizing the accounting treatment.
Under Krungsri’s sensitivity analysis, BEM could lose about THB 100 million in revenue if no compensation were provided, a scenario the brokerage does not expect. That amount would represent roughly 2% of third-quarter 2026 revenue or 0.6% of full-year 2026 revenue.
Krungsri also pointed to a partial offset from BEM’s mass transit business, as subway ridership increased during the flooding period. The brokerage said this supports its view that the toll waiver should not materially affect BEM’s profit outlook.
Krungsri continues to view BEM as a value play, citing its share price of THB 6.55, which implies an upside of about 34% to the target price of THB 8.80 per share. The brokerage said BEM’s current valuation remains attractive relative to its earnings recovery, with 2026 profit expected to exceed levels recorded during 2020-2022.
