The Investment Analysts Association (IAA) expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to end 2026 at 1,680 points, with investment in artificial intelligence and its supply chain, improving listed-company earnings, foreign fund flows and a recovery in the domestic economy providing support to the market in the fourth quarter.
The IAA survey, which gathered views from analysts and fund managers at 25 firms, found that external factors remain the key risks to the Thai stock market, particularly geopolitical conflicts, the direction of U.S. interest rates and global oil prices.
Market Assumptions
The survey’s key assumptions include an average 2026 crude oil price of US$88.12 per barrel and an average 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2.20%, up from 1.93% in the IAA’s previous survey in July. Forecasts for 2026 GDP growth ranged from 1.9% to 2.5%, while the average forecast for 2027 stood at 2.07%.
The average risk-free rate used for valuation was estimated at 2.18%, while the average equity risk premium was 7.47%.
Among factors expected to support investment in the fourth quarter, 96% of respondents cited investment in AI technology and its supply chain. This was followed by 2026 listed-company earnings at 88%, foreign fund flows into Thai equities at 80%, and the domestic economy at 76%.
On the negative side, 84% of respondents identified the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict and the direction of U.S. interest rates as the top risks. Global oil prices ranked next at 80%, highlighting continued concerns over external volatility.
All respondents expect the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate to remain at 1% through the end of 2026.
Analysts forecast average market earnings per share (EPS) of 103.38 baht for 2026 and 104.29 baht for 2027, implying average EPS growth of 16.41% this year.
The SET is expected to trade within a range of 1,537–1,683 points during the fourth quarter before ending 2026 at 1,680 points. The average year-end SET target for 2027 was placed at 1,727 points.
Recommended Asset Allocation
The analysts recommended a diversified portfolio comprising 30% foreign equities or equity funds, 24.79% Thai equities or equity funds, 18.02% fixed-income funds, 10.21% gold or gold funds, 10.02% cash and short-term deposits, and 6.96% property funds or real estate investment trusts (REITs).
For overseas investments, analysts favored technology and innovation stocks, particularly AI, semiconductors and AI infrastructure such as data centers in the U.S. and Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea and China. Cybersecurity and healthcare/wellness were also highlighted.
Five foreign-related depositary receipts (DRs) listed on the SET were recommended by at least five research houses: NVDA80, AAPL80, AMD80, GOOG80 and MRVL80.
For Thai equities, analysts recommended increasing exposure to tourism, healthcare, banking, power generation, utilities, commerce/retail and electronics, while reducing exposure to energy and petrochemicals as well as property.
Stocks in Focus
Five Thai stocks received recommendations from at least four research houses: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF and CRC.
BDMS is supported by an expected recovery in revenue and earnings, seasonal demand during the high season, a recovery in international patients and an increase in complex medical cases, alongside its extensive hospital network.
KBANK is expected to benefit from a recovery in loan growth alongside the investment cycle and data-center development, as well as an improving economic outlook. Some analysts also cited potential NIM recovery and dividend strength.
DELTA continues to attract interest from the AI megatrend, while some respondents consider its valuation increasingly attractive.
GULF has long-term growth opportunities from investments in energy and infrastructure, particularly direct power purchase agreements, the 2026 Power Development Plan and rising demand for renewable energy. Data-center investment is also expected to support future electricity demand.
CRC is supported by business and portfolio restructuring, the expansion of its Tops supermarket network and its operations in Vietnam, including the acquisition of Maxvalu. The company could also benefit from the tourism high season.
Meanwhile, most analysts advised caution on energy and petrochemical stocks due to concerns over oil-price volatility, petrochemical spreads and refining margins, as well as regulatory and government-intervention risks.
Analysts also urged caution on airlines, which remain sensitive to fuel costs and debt burdens, as well as property stocks, which could face pressure from weaker consumer purchasing power.
Policy Recommendations
The IAA also urged the government to accelerate infrastructure investment, particularly in transport and logistics, energy, water management and digital infrastructure. It called for faster government budget disbursement and the implementation of investment projects that are ready to proceed and offer clear economic returns.
The association also recommended measures to encourage private investment and attract foreign direct investment, including reducing regulatory barriers, supporting SMEs and promoting investment in machinery upgrades and innovation. It also called for greater support for future industries such as AI, the new economy and New S-Curve industries, as well as investment in data centers.
For households, the IAA recommended targeted assistance for low-income groups and affected people, alongside more efficient government spending and less reliance on broad-based cash handouts. It also proposed workforce upskilling and reskilling, measures to boost employment, tax incentives, and policies to encourage long-term saving and investment through the Thailand Individual Savings Account (TISA), including higher tax-deductible investment limits.
