Kasikorn Securities (KS) views the recent flooding in Bangkok as having a limited impact on the finance sector. According to Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt, around 329,000 households, or approximately 10% of all households in Bangkok, and about 700,000 people were affected by the floods from September 25–28, 2026, as reported by local media citing the National Statistical Office.
The Department of Drainage and Sewerage expects the situation to return to normal by October 1, 2026, resulting in a total flood duration of about five days.
Looking back at the flooding in Southern Thailand in 4Q25, Kasikorn observed a slight increase in credit costs after the incident due to companies raising reserves to cover risks in their loan portfolios. However, no significant increase in new non-performing loans or notable deterioration in asset quality was seen during 4Q25 to 2Q26.
Among finance companies, TIDLOR was the only firm to allocate an additional THB 200 million in provisions for the southern floods in 4Q25. After assessments showed milder impacts than anticipated, TIDLOR reversed part of this provision in 1Q26.
Kasikorn expects only a minor negative impact on the finance sector due to the concentrated nature of the flooding in Bangkok and the fact that most finance companies have well-diversified loan portfolios. CREDIT has the highest exposure, with approximately 80% of its loan book in Bangkok and its vicinity, followed by TIDLOR with 28%. MTC, SAWAD, and TURBO each have about 10% of their loans in Bangkok, whereas SAK has no exposure to the city.
The brokerage anticipates some pressure on loan yields and credit costs in 4Q26 as a result of the recent floods, given that the incident occurred at the end of 3Q26. Financial institutions are expected to introduce relief measures for affected customers, such as payment holidays and debt restructuring, potentially weighing on short-term profitability. Nonetheless, with the impact localized and loan portfolios broadly diversified, the overall impact is expected to be limited.
Following these, Kasikorn maintains a neutral outlook for the sector, expecting a short-term impact from the Bangkok floods. Top stock picks—MTC (target price THB 39.00), TURBO (THB 2.56), and THANI (THB 2.40), all rated ‘Buy’—are anticipated to see limited impact.
