On October 6, Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director General Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), Ministry of Commerce, disclosed that Thailand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2026 stood at 102.93, compared with 100.11 in the same month of the previous year. This resulted in headline inflation increasing by 2.82% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.53% in August, marking the second consecutive month of acceleration and reaching its highest level in five months.
The primary driver was domestic fuel prices remaining elevated compared to the previous year due to the intensifying energy security crisis in the Middle East following attacks on southern Saudi Arabia. This raised concerns and risks regarding crude oil transport routes to Asia being restricted, while the conflict showed no signs of easing as bilateral diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran had yet to reach a resolution.
Additionally, prepared food prices rose in line with higher production costs across multiple fronts, alongside price increases for fresh food items including eggs, chicken, vegetables, and certain fruits, with agricultural output partially affected by volatile weather conditions.
In September, fuel prices increased by 20.69% year-on-year and 5.95% month-on-month, contributing 1.85 percentage points to headline inflation. Prepared food contributed 0.65 percentage points and public transport fares contributed 0.13 percentage points, whereas electricity prices fell 7.54% YoY and 7.75% MoM.
The food and non-alcoholic beverages category rose 3.07% YoY, driven by higher prices for white rice, prepared food, eggs, chicken, pork, and certain vegetables and fruits, while prices for specific vegetables and fruits, glutinous rice, and food delivery services declined.
The non-food and beverage category increased by 2.67% YoY due to higher fuel prices, public transport fares, house rent, and certain personal care items, while electricity costs, home maintenance fees, hotel room rates, and certain apparel items declined.
Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, increased by 1.50% YoY, accelerating from 1.44% in August. On a MoM basis, headline inflation in September increased by 0.25%, with the non-food and beverage category rising 0.30%, driven primarily by domestic fuel prices tracking global crude oil prices, while the food and non-alcoholic beverages category rose 0.18%.
For the first nine months of 2026, headline inflation averaged an increase of 1.54% compared to the same period last year. In the third quarter, headline inflation rose 2.44% YoY, but declined 0.45% quarter-on-quarter.
Nantapong stated that the Ministry of Commerce revised its full-year 2026 headline inflation target range to 1.8 – 2.2%, from the previous range of 1.5 – 2.5%, while maintaining the midpoint at 2.0%. This forecast is based on assumptions of Thai economic growth at 2.0 – 2.5%, Dubai crude oil prices averaging $85 – 95 per barrel, and an exchange rate of THB 32.4 – 32.9 per US dollar.
Regarding the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026, headline inflation is projected to remain positive, supported by domestic fuel prices remaining higher than last year, gradual cost-driven increases in prepared food prices, and rising travel expenses—particularly bus fares, which adjusted upward in line with fuel costs.
Meanwhile, weather-sensitive fresh food prices are expected to rise as supply was partially affected by volatile weather conditions.
Factors dampening inflationary pressures include electricity tariffs for the September – December 2026 period, which dropped to THB 3.86 per unit from THB 3.95 in the previous period, along with a downward trend in personal care item prices driven by intense competition and continuous promotional activities by major businesses.
Separately, Krungsri Securities (KSS) noted in a research note that September’s headline inflation rate of 2.82% came in below the market consensus forecast of 3.0%, while core inflation at 1.50% was below the market expectation of 1.58%. Although both figures accelerated from the previous month, they remained within the central bank’s target range of 1 – 3%.
KSS projects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.0% for the remainder of 2026, viewing this as a psychological positive for the SET Index and investment-related equities.
Stocks expected by KSS to benefit from positive sentiment include industrial estate developers such as AMATA and WHA. For the power plant sector, GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, and GUNKUL are anticipated to benefit from the sentiment.
KSS also highlighted the banking names including KBANK and KTB, as well as construction contractors such as STECON, PYLON, and INSET.
