The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC) is expected to post a net profit of THB 4.98 billion for the third quarter of 2026, according to CLSA’s latest forecast. This represents a 57% drop quarter-on-quarter, but a significant turnaround from a loss recorded in the same period last year.
Key drivers include softer polyethylene and polypropylene spreads, dropping by $140/ton and $70/ton QoQ to $384 and $435, respectively. Petrochemical sales volume is projected to fall by 50% QoQ due to shutdowns at Rayong Olefins (ROC) and Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP), with the latter expected to post a THB 3 billion loss in Q3. A spike in oil prices in September should reflect in a THB 700 million stock gain, lower than the THB 1.1 billion recorded in Q2. Unlike the previous quarter, SCC is not anticipated to receive seasonal dividend income.
In the domestic market, cement demand is expected to slip by 2% YoY, though selling prices remain higher. The packaging segment is projected to generate softer earnings due to increased costs. These factors culminate in the forecast net profit figure, with an estimated earnings per share of THB 4.15.
Looking ahead, operations are expected to improve in 4Q26, supported by the ROC restart, though LSP will remain shut until its ethane feedstock project is completed. SCC’s joint venture with PTTGC is progressing, with management targeting completion by the end of October and expecting $250-300 million in annual profits from the ethane project.
As a result, CLSA maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating on SCC and a target price of THB 280.00 per share, citing the company’s journey from high debt to strong cash generation by 2028, potentially supporting expansion into low-carbon cement, building materials, and downstream chemicals in Vietnam.
