Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on October 19, 2025, that the Thai stock market may potentially experience volatile movements alternating between gains and losses. However, it retains the potential for a gradual recovery in a sideways-up trend, following selling pressure over the past week alongside a public holiday break that contributed to trading volatility.
Nevertheless, investment sentiment this week is anticipated to have an improving trend, with the Thai stock market potentially seeing an influx of buying interest. The analyst set a support level for the SET Index at 1,565 – 1,570 points, and a resistance level at 1,585 points.
Regarding external factors, lower global crude oil prices and declining U.S. government bond yields have helped ease pressure on risk assets. Mr. Pobchai attributed some relief in energy supply concerns to the U.S. stance of suspending or delaying sanctions against Russia. However, Middle East tensions remain a risk that could periodically push oil prices higher.
Meanwhile, the analyst remarked that a rise of more than 20% in the VIX Index highlighted lingering investor anxiety, including concerns about debt burdens and debt fundraising challenges at certain mega-cap technology companies.
Mr. Pobchai identified MSCI’s ongoing review of Indonesia’s market status as a potential catalyst for Thai equities. Possible outcomes include a downgrade from Emerging Market status to a lower classification or, in the most extreme case, reclassification as a Standalone Market.
No definitive decision has been reached. Nevertheless, some fund managers could reduce Indonesian equity exposure before an official outcome to manage classification risks, potentially reallocating capital elsewhere in Asia.
Active funds have greater flexibility to make such adjustments than passive funds tracking benchmarks. A downgrade could trigger significant foreign portfolio rebalancing, with Thailand potentially benefiting from regional capital rotation.
Mr. Pobchai noted that big-cap stocks, defensive shares and businesses with stable earnings could attract foreign interest, particularly commercial banks, telecommunications, energy and power utilities. However, the analyst expects inflows to be gradual as investors await greater clarity on Indonesia and assess Thai listed companies’ third-quarter 2026 results.
The analyst also highlighted favorable feedback on Thailand’s hosting of the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings, including praise from IMF management for the event’s efficiency and standards. He said the gathering provided an opportunity to present Thailand’s economic direction and development plans to international financial executives and investors.
Meanwhile, the Thai government has outlined three economic key targets: gross domestic output growth above 3%, an increase in the investment-to-GDP ratio from approximately 22% to 30%, and a place among the world’s top 20 economies for competitiveness.
Delivering tangible progress could strengthen foreign investor confidence and attract medium- to long-term capital, Mr. Pobchai said. More positive assessments from the IMF and World Bank also support Thailand’s investment appeal.
Industrial estates, power utilities and electronic component manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from increased investment through demand for industrial space, electricity and participation in technology and artificial intelligence supply chains, the analyst remarked.
Despite these supportive factors, Mr. Pobchai cautioned that a market recovery would take time, with foreign capital flows dependent on Indonesia’s classification outlook and Thai corporate earnings.
