Maybank Securities (Thailand) projects that Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC) will report a net profit of THB 1.57 billion for 3Q26, representing a decline of 10% YoY and 14% QoQ. This figure is expected to include a net non-recurring gain of THB 257 million, primarily attributed to profit from the divestment of its stake in Sheng Yang Energy (SYE), a solar power project located in Taiwan.
Excluding special items, GPSC’s core profit for the period is estimated at THB 1.3 billion, down 9% YoY and 21% QoQ. The contraction is largely due to a 14% YoY and 14% QoQ decrease in gross profit, driven by significant increases in gas prices, which surged by 28% YoY and 11% QoQ. The higher gas costs directly impacted the spark spread of the company’s SPP business, compressing margins.
Meanwhile, performance from Gheco-One, GPSC’s major IPP project, is expected to remain stable from 2Q26, supported by full receipt of availability payments and coal-related losses returning to normal levels.
Maybank also anticipates that GPSC’s share of core profit from associates and joint ventures will reach THB 112 million in 3Q26, a reversal from the loss reported in 3Q25 but down 17% QoQ. The YoY improvement is attributed to a higher capacity factor at CFXD, while the QoQ decline is due to increased operating expenses at AEPL.
Should core profit in 3Q26 meet expectations, accumulated core profit for the first nine months of 2026 would account for 73% of the full-year forecast.
Looking ahead to 4Q26, Maybank expects core profit to decline both YoY and QoQ, pressured by further gas cost increases. The pool gas price for SPP business is estimated at approximately THB 440 per MMBtu in 4Q26, up 47% YoY and 11% QoQ, while the Ft rate is expected to remain steady QoQ.
As a result, the brokerage maintains a ‘Hold’ recommendation on GPSC, with a target price of THB 54.00 per share.
