Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on October 21, 2026, stated that the Thai stock market has an opportunity for a technical rebound today, tracking Asian equities. This trend is notably supported by strong gains in the Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese stock markets, driven by buying momentum in technology and electronics shares.
Additionally, the Thai stock market has the potential to receive support from DELTA, a heavyweight stock in the index calculation. Without support from electronics shares, the market would likely trade sideways, as domestic fundamentals lack clear growth drivers.
Regarding the previous session’s drop—where the SET Index fell by over 16 points—the decline was partly driven by renewed concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East. This prompted institutional investors to reduce portfolio risk, accompanied by persistent selling pressure from foreign investors.
Mr. Chaiyot noted that over the past three months, from August to October, the Thai equity market experienced continuous foreign capital outflows totaling approximately THB 60 billion. This outflow exerted pressure on investor confidence, leading some market participants to take profits to manage risk.
Meanwhile, the reweighting of Indonesian equities in the MSCI Index—previously viewed as a potential positive factor for capital flows into the Thai stock market—has not yet resulted in clear foreign capital inflows into Thailand.
This is due to Indonesia’s active efforts to resolve issues surrounding free float ratios and cross-shareholding structures, which pertain to index calculation criteria. As a result, the Indonesian stock market recovered by approximately 4% in the previous session.
Furthermore, foreign investors evaluate national economic growth prospects when allocating investment capital. Given that Thailand’s economic growth rate remains relatively low compared to regional peers, the country may not benefit from capital reallocations as much as the market had expected.
Regarding current investment strategies, KSS recommends that investors overweight stocks expected to report outstanding 3Q26 earnings, selecting four industry sectors supported by specific catalysts:
1) Hospital Sector: 3Q26 earnings are projected to show strong growth due to the rainy season, which represents the high season for medical services. This is further supported by a recovery in international patient numbers, positively impacting revenues and operating results for hospital operators. BDMS and PR9 are selected as top stock picks.
2. Energy and Refinery Sector: Third-quarter performance is expected to improve across nearly the entire sector, including refining, petrochemicals, and petroleum exploration and production (E&P), buoyed by favorable crude oil price trends and refining margins. TOP is highlighted as the top stock pick in the refinery segment.
3. IT Retail Sector: The sector is expected to benefit from new smartphone launches, particularly the latest iPhone models, which stimulate sales and support the third quarter of 2026 earnings. COM7 is designated as the sector’s top stock pick.
4. Electronic Components Sector: Earnings are viewed as having strong growth potential, driven by demand for AI-related products and technological shifts. However, a selective stock-picking approach is recommended, with DELTA and KCE named as top picks anticipated to post solid 3Q26 results.
Regarding the banking sector, Mr. Chaiyot noted that 3Q26 earnings results released so far have largely matched research expectations, with the exception of KKP, which reported higher-than-expected profits, generating a positive share price reaction.
Meanwhile, other major banks—including BBL, KBANK, and TISCO—reported overall results in line with market forecasts. Consequently, trading activity may reflect post-earnings speculative buying or profit-taking without significant surprise factors.
Additionally, the banking sector maintains attractive dividend yield characteristics. However, credit growth in 2026 faces limitations from broader economic conditions and flood impacts, which may cap overall loan expansion.
Looking ahead to 2027, if government economic stimulus measures and public investment initiatives proceed continuously, they are expected to foster a new investment cycle and stimulate loan demand recovery. Simultaneously, the wealth management business is projected to maintain steady growth over the next 3 to 4 years, supporting fee income for commercial banks.
However, KSS recommends monitoring risks in consumer finance stocks closely, particularly the impact of severe flooding on borrowers’ debt repayment capacities, which could elevate non-performing loan (NPL) risks.
These impacts are expected to become more apparent in the fourth quarter of 2026 financial results, as the flooding occurred in late September, meaning credit quality impacts may not be fully reflected in 3Q26 figures.
Regarding borrower relief measures from the government and financial institutions—specifically debt moratoriums and payment concessions—while they help reduce immediate pressure on NPL growth, they may adversely affect interest and fee income for operators as financial institutions extend required assistance and flexible terms to affected clients.
Therefore, investors should closely monitor the impacts on credit quality, net interest income, and fee income across the consumer finance sector during the final quarter of the year before assessing subsequent investment strategies, according to the analyst.
