Krungsri Securities (KSS) has maintained its “Buy” recommendation on Amata Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: AMATA), with a 2027 target price of THB 38, despite a slightly negative view on its third-quarter 2026 normalized profit outlook amid weaker-than-expected land transfers.
The brokerage forecasts third-quarter normalized profit of THB 832 million, down 28% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter, below both its own and market expectations. Total revenue is projected to decline 20% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to THB 3.4 billion.
The main pressure comes from projected land transfers of 258 rai, falling 62% YoY and 10% QoQ. The shortfall is expected to weigh on industrial estate revenue.
However, profitability should remain relatively strong. KSS forecasts a gross profit margin of 45.7%, up 340 basis points from a year earlier but down 570 basis points from the previous quarter. A larger proportion of transfers in higher-priced locations is expected to support the average selling price per rai and margins.
For the first nine months of 2026, KSS projects normalized profit of THB 3.4 billion, increasing 50% YoY and representing 77% of its full-year forecast. Land transfers over the period are expected to total approximately 852 rai, equivalent to 66% of the brokerage’s annual target of 1,284 rai.
KSS retained its 2026 normalized profit forecast of THB 4.4 billion, implying 34% annual growth. It expects profit to recover sequentially in the fourth quarter, supported by the seasonal acceleration of land transfers toward year-end.
The brokerage views the transfer slowdown as a short-term revenue recognition timing issue. AMATA’s transfer backlog of approximately THB 16.4 billion—the largest among its peers—and land bank exceeding 20,069 rai underpin its medium- to long-term outlook.
KSS also sees AMATA’s strategy of targeting Chinese investors positioning it to benefit from the China +1 trend and continued growth in foreign direct investment inflows during the first nine months of 2026.
While weaker presales and a soft third-quarter earnings outlook could pressure the share price in the near term, KSS expects the backlog to support a strong 2027 net profit outlook. The stock is trading at 7.5 times forecast 2027 earnings, below its historical average.
