Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM) to report a record normalized net profit of THB 1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.7% QoQ and 1.9% YoY. Growth is expected to be supported by lower maintenance expenses following cost savings on the MRT Purple Line and reduced financial costs.
Total revenue is projected at THB 4.27 billion, up 7.2% QoQ but down 1.2% YoY. Average daily ridership on the Blue Line is estimated at 433,000 trips, while expressway traffic is forecast at 1.11 million trips. Gross profit margin is expected to reach 44.2%, improving 239 basis points QoQ.
Financial costs are projected at THB 510 million, down 10.5% YoY following debt repayments and lower interest rates. BEM is scheduled to announce its 3Q26 results on November 13, 2026.
For 4Q26, earnings are expected to decline QoQ due to the absence of dividend income from TTW. However, seasonal travel demand should support higher ridership and expressway traffic. Yuanta also expects stronger YoY earnings growth compared with 3Q26, driven by a full quarter of Purple Line maintenance savings and potential reversals of additional maintenance provisions.
As of September 2026, electrical and mechanical system installation on the Orange Line’s eastern section was 75% complete, while civil construction and system installation on the western section reached 41% and 8%, respectively. BEM targets commercial operations for the eastern section in January 2028 and the entire line by July 2030.
The company has ordered 53 train sets, comprising 32 for the Orange Line and 21 for the Blue Line. The first Orange Line train is expected to arrive in Thailand in late November 2026.
Yuanta identifies the proposed joint ticket scheme, expected to take effect on January 1, 2027, as a key catalyst that could support double-digit earnings growth next year. Additional upside drivers include a THB 15 toll increase on the SOE route in December 2026 and potential developments in the Double Deck Expressway and Purple Line South projects.
As a result, the brokerage maintains its earnings forecasts and ‘Buy’ recommendation with a fair value of THB 10.50 per share, viewing the recent 7% share price decline over three months as an opportunity to accumulate ahead of BEM’s next growth cycle.
