Yuanta Securities expects Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG) to report 3Q26 core profit of THB 289 million, increasing 6% YoY and 26% QoQ, supported by stronger demand from both self-pay patients and government healthcare programmes.
Core revenue is forecast at THB 2.245 billion, up 5% YoY and 9% QoQ, driven by seasonal demand and a higher incidence of illnesses compared with the previous year. Revenue from self-pay patients is expected to grow 3% YoY, while social security revenue is projected to increase 10%, supported by greater utilisation of specialised medical services, including bariatric surgery, cardiac care and cancer treatment.
Revenue from other government programmes is expected to rise 15% YoY, particularly from heart and cancer treatments.
Gross profit margin is forecast to improve to 29.0% from 26.3% in 2Q26, while remaining below 29.7% in 3Q25 due to a higher contribution from government-funded patients relative to self-pay customers.
Yuanta expects earnings to continue growing YoY in 4Q26, supported by general patient services and complex treatments despite the end of the high season. CHG maintains its target of mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, with stronger contributions from its cardiac and cancer centres expected to offset weaker bariatric surgery income.
The brokerage maintains its 2026 profit forecast at THB 991 million, up 7% YoY, outperforming the hospital sector it covers, for which earnings are projected to decline 2%. Core profit in 2027 is forecast to increase another 6% to THB 1.049 billion.
CHG’s expansion plans include the Chularat 3 International Hospital extension, expected to open in 2Q27, and the 200-bed CHG Rayong Hospital, targeted for 3Q27. Both projects aim to accommodate self-pay patients and demand for specialised treatments in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).
Regarding social security reimbursement, a preliminary proposal to increase the annual capitation rate by 3–4% remains subject to final approval. Yuanta estimates that such an adjustment from the current THB 1,808 per patient annually could lift CHG’s 2027 earnings by 5.7–7.6%, excluding potential changes to reimbursement for complex treatments.
As a result, Yuanta maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a fair value of THB 2.15 per share, citing earnings recovery, cost controls, a growing mix of specialised services, and hospital expansion. CHG’s valuation remains attractive, given its medium- to long-term outlook.
