Maybank Securities (Thailand) wrote that the Democratic Party’s majority control in the U.S. Congress is expected to have a limited negative impact on the overall SET Index in the medium term. The party is likely to push for significant policy reversals, particularly regarding the Iran conflict, tariff measures, and regulations governing major technology companies.
These policy shifts may exert pressure on two major industrial sectors. In the energy sector, an end to the Iran conflict could lead to a rapid decline in oil prices. The brokerage maintains its Brent crude oil price estimate at $70 per barrel for 2027, while refining margins are also anticipated to drop sharply.
For the electronics sector, the construction of data centers in the U.S. is expected to face significantly stricter regulations due to increasing public opposition. This could negatively affect Thai electronics exports and potentially limit growth for DELTA and HANA.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party’s policies are projected to benefit four key sectors. Firstly, the tourism sector should be positively affected by both a resolution to the Iran conflict and lower oil prices. This would support AOT, BA, and AWC, especially during the high season from December to February.
Secondly, the food and beverage sector stands to gain from the potential lifting of tariff measures, benefiting exporters such as TU and ITC. Thirdly, in the finance and consumer lending sector, lower oil prices and tariff removals could ease interest rate expectations, benefitting companies such as TIDLOR and MTC.
Lastly, stricter U.S. regulations on data center construction could present an opportunity for industrial estate and construction firms in Thailand if investment shifts to the region. This scenario favors companies such as AMATA and STECON.
