Pi Securities wrote that Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC)’s BigC business has positive same-store sales growth for the first time in six quarters. In the third quarter of 2026, the modern retail segment will recognize a full quarter’s performance from MM Mega Market in Vietnam. As a result, sales in the segment are expected to grow by 24% year-on-year, with BigC’s SSSG forecast at 0.5% and MM Mega Market at 15%.
Combined, these two entities are anticipated to deliver a total SSSG of 2.5% in 3Q26. The segment’s gross margin is projected to increase by 100 basis points year-on-year, supported by coupon promotions and supply chain management improvements, which should lead to higher EBIT for the modern retail business.
Furthermore, the packaging business is also expected to see year-on-year profit growth in 3Q26, driven by packaging revenue of THB 7.4 billion, an increase of 30% year-on-year. Glass packaging sales are expected to rise by 31% year-on-year, benefiting from new customers after the closure of a competitor’s glass plant, leading to higher domestic sales and contributions from the consolidation of glass plants in Malaysia and Vietnam.
Revenue from can packaging is anticipated to grow by 29% year-on-year, following an expanded customer base in Vietnam. However, the gross margin for the packaging business is expected to decline by 200 basis points year-on-year in 3Q26, due to an increased sales mix from lower-margin overseas glass plants.
Looking ahead, the profit outlook for 4Q26 and 2027 remains positive, according to Pi Securities. Profit in 4Q26 is expected to rise year-on-year, supported by continued strength in the packaging business and the modern retail segment, with positive SSSG and ongoing contributions from MM Mega Market. Cost savings are also expected from branch closures and restructuring at headquarters.
BigC’s SSSG for the quarter-to-date in 4Q26 is strong at 2% year-on-year, underpinned by food product sales. Non-food product sales, while slightly negative, are improving, with the Homeline segment showing double-digit growth—a result of demand following floods and a more tailored product assortment.
The analyst maintains a ‘Hold’ recommendation with limited upside for BJC, setting a target price of THB 21.00 per share. This is calculated using a 15x PE multiple for 2027, in line with the Thai commerce sector average, and revised up from THB 17.00 after increasing profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 8%-22% to reflect improved cost controls following business restructuring.
