Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has projected strong year-on-year earnings growth for Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) in the third quarter of 2026, supported by rising same-store sales growth and improved gross profit margin. Normalized profit is estimated to reach THB 1.8 billion, a decline of 16.3% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects, but representing a robust 36.3% increase year-on-year.
Total core revenue for the quarter is forecast at THB 57 billion, growing 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and 4.5% year-on-year, driven mainly by overall group SSSG, which is estimated at 2% YoY. This marks an improvement from 1% in 2Q26 and a recovery from -4% in 3Q25. The Food business is anticipated to lead with SSSG of 6% YoY, aided by promotional activities and consumer stockpiling at the end of September following flooding incidents.
The Fashion segment is expected to see SSSG of 2% YoY, supported by the introduction of new brands and a boost from the World Cup and foreign tourists in key locations. However, the Hardline segment is projected to decline by 2% YoY, reflecting continued industry weakness in building materials and home repairs.
The 3Q26 GPM is forecast at 27.4%, up 76 basis points year-on-year, attributed to higher sales of house brand products across all segments. The SG&A-to-sales ratio is expected to remain stable at 29.34% YoY.
For 4Q26, Yuanta expects profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by the high season. SSSG for October is estimated at 3-4% YoY, with Food and Hardline segments benefiting from post-flood demand, while Fashion may moderate due to softer demand for discretionary goods. Typically, the fourth quarter delivers the best margins of the year due to holiday-related consumer spending, which is expected to support further GPM improvement.
Yuanta has revised up its GPM assumptions for 2026-27 by 30 basis points, to 26.8% and 27.2%, respectively. This leads to a 5.9% and 5.3% upward revision in normalized profit for 2026 and 2027, bringing the estimates to THB 9.7 billion (+18.9% YoY) and THB 11 billion (+12.4% YoY).
The brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on CRC, with a target price of THB 37.00 per share—representing a 14.7% upside and an anticipated dividend yield of 2.2%—citing attractive valuations at 2026-27 PER of just 20.1-17.9x, below the four-year historical average.
