Supalai Public Company Limited (SET: SPALI) experienced a slowdown in property transfers in the third quarter of 2026, with the Parc Ekkamai-Pattanakarn condominium project particularly affected by unexpected flooding in Bangkok during September. This led to weaker earnings, but Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects transfers to normalize in the fourth quarter, supporting recovery.
The reported core profit for the first nine months of the year constituted 66% of both KKPS’ and consensus full-year forecasts. The third quarter core profit came in at THB 833 million, marking a 29% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter decline. This was 5% below consensus estimates and 16% below KKPS’ forecast, primarily due to residential revenue falling short by 23%.
Third quarter presales totaled THB 5.6 billion, down 19% year-on-year but up 6% from the previous quarter. Residential revenue dropped to THB 5.1 billion, with landed property making up 72% and condos 28% of the total. Residential gross profit margin also fell to 30.2% from the strong 35.8% recorded last year, reflecting greater promotional activity and increased competition, though it remained stable compared to the previous quarter.
The company also saw its SG&A expenses rise to 15.9% of total revenue due to the weaker top line. Profit-sharing from Australian projects slowed to THB 119 million, a 22% year-on-year decline and significantly lower than the previous quarter’s record high, attributable to typical seasonality in Australia.
SPALI has adjusted its strategy by cutting new launches 17% to THB 29 billion, mostly trimming landed property launches from THB 27 billion to THB 20 billion due to weaker demand. Nevertheless, fourth quarter launches are projected at THB 12.7 billion—70% landed property and 30% condominiums—representing a 15% year-on-year increase and nearly tripling quarter-on-quarter.
Looking ahead, KKPS expects presales and earnings to recover strongly in the fourth quarter, driven by transfers from the Parc Ekkamai-Pattanakarn and Kram Kao Tao projects, along with an improved gross profit margin on the back of a favorable product mix.
SPALI’s strong balance sheet, with a low net gearing ratio of 0.6x and a projected 2027 dividend yield of 8.4%, supports a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of THB 17.50 per share, given by the brokerage.
