Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) wrote that CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP) reported a net profit of THB 701 million for 3Q26, marking a substantial increase of 609% quarter-on-quarter but a notable decrease of 44.8% year-on-year. This result was 10% below both the brokerage’s and market expectations, mainly due to lower-than-anticipated electricity sales revenue from the Nam Ngum 2 (NN2) hydropower plant.
The significant quarter-on-quarter profit recovery was primarily driven by higher contributions from the Xayaburi Power Company Limited (XPCL) hydropower plant, in which CKP holds a 42.5% stake. The improved earnings reflected increased electricity sales volumes in line with seasonal trends. In addition, NN2’s revenue rose quarter-on-quarter thanks to higher electricity sales during its business high season.
However, NN2’s revenue fell by 50% year-on-year as a result of reduced inflow into the dam compared to the same period last year. The NN3 project, located upstream from the NN2 reservoir, retained more water, and lower-than-average rainfall due to the El Niño phenomenon further suppressed water inflow. As a result, NN2 declared its electricity supply based on a conservative approach.
The company’s share of profit from associates totaled THB 711 million, reflecting a 315% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 24% decrease year-on-year. Xayaburi’s profit reached THB 822 million, significantly higher sequentially, yet down 6.7% year-on-year due to lower water inflow and a 10% year-on-year drop in electricity production.
Losses from the Luang Prabang hydropower project, totaling THB 110 million, were mostly attributable to foreign exchange losses, partially offsetting the gains. Operating expenses increased slightly both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while interest expenses declined as expected.
Excluding FX gains totaling THB 75 million this quarter, CKP’s normalized operating profit would be THB 776 million, up both quarter-on-quarter and 103% year-on-year.
According to Finansia, 9M26 net profit was THB 979 million, representing 57% of the full-year forecast. Earnings in 4Q26 are expected to decline seasonally, with both NN2’s and Xayaburi’s output likely to fall due to lower reservoir levels and high prior-year water flows. This presents downside risk to the 2026 earnings estimate of THB 1.7 billion, down 26% year-on-year.
In the short term, investor caution regarding El Niño’s continued impact from late 2026 into 2027 may weigh on shares. However, the brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation in the long term, viewing the stock as undervalued below its NAV of THB 3.90 per share.
