CGS International (CGSI) has maintained its “Add” recommendation on AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: AP) and raised its target price to THB 9.90, following stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and expectations for further profit growth in the final quarter of 2026.
AP reported third-quarter net profit of THB 1.21 billion, up 13.5% quarter-on-quarter and 4.6% year-on-year. The result exceeded the investment house’s forecast by 3.9% and Bloomberg consensus by 2.9%, supported by higher-than-expected residential revenue, THB 50 million in land expropriation income and lower-than-expected selling, general and administrative expenses.
Residential revenue increased 2.7% QoQ and 21.7% YoY to THB 10.8 billion, driven by higher transfers of low-rise housing and condominiums. However, residential gross margin declined to 28.3%, from 29.3% in the previous quarter and 30.4% a year earlier, as price competition weighed on Bangkok low-rise projects.
Nine-month net profit rose 4.9% YoY to THB 3.17 billion, representing 70.5% of CGSI’s full-year forecast. The brokerage considered this on track, anticipating stronger fourth-quarter earnings.
Following AP’s analyst meeting on November 12, 2026, the securities firm noted that the company had raised its annual project launch plan by 7.3% to THB 59 billion across 49 projects, from THB 55 billion across 42 projects. The increase reflects additional low-rise launches in Bangkok and upcountry.
Presales for the first ten months rose 11.5% YoY to THB 41.6 billion, equivalent to 85% of the analyst’s unchanged THB 49 billion full-year forecast. AP plans to launch 17 projects worth THB 17 billion in the fourth quarter, comprising 15 low-rise developments and two condominiums.
CGSI forecasts fourth-quarter transfers of THB 13.4 billion, up 8% QoQ and 8.5% YoY, marking the highest quarterly level for 2026. Joint-venture condominium transfers, particularly Rhythm Charoennakhon Iconic and Life Sathorn-Narathiwas 22, are expected to drive growth.
AP’s end-October backlog covers 109.2% of the investment firm’s THB 47.6 billion full-year transfer forecast, assuming a 42% presales backlog cancellation rate.
The brokerage expects fourth-quarter net profit to rise 10.1% QoQ and 15.1% YoY to THB 1.33 billion. AP believes residential gross margin bottomed in the third quarter, with easing price competition expected to support low-rise margins.
CGSI maintained its 2026 – 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts and rolled its valuation forward to 2027. The analyst firm’s revised target remains based on 5.9 times forecast 2028 earnings, 0.3 standard deviations above the historical five-year mean. Potential catalysts include stronger-than-expected margins and interest rate cuts, while transfer and launch delays remain downside risks.
