Krungsri Securities noted in its report regarding Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) that the analyst has maintained a neutral view on BA’s 1Q25 earnings result meeting as travel demand came in lower than the company’s initial expectations.
The airline is currently reassessing the situation and may update its forecasts going forward. Despite the broader weakness, the Samui route—which accounts for about 70% of ticket revenue—remains a standout performer and is expected to offset declines in other routes.
In 1Q25, passenger volumes on the Samui route increased by 5% year-on-year, while total passenger traffic at Samui Airport—including other airlines—rose by 12%. Advanced bookings for the Samui route for the remainder of the year are also up 12% compared to the same period last year.
By contrast, other routes are showing signs of stress. Apart from the Samui route, domestic passenger numbers fell 13% and international passengers dropped 14% on a yearly basis. Advanced bookings for domestic flights are down 4% while international bookings have declined by 18%.
Bangkok Airways is reviewing its full-year 2025 passenger growth target of 8% year-on-year, and a revised guidance is expected after the release of second-quarter results. Meanwhile, the current estimates from the analyst remain more conservative, with an anticipation of flat passenger numbers for 2025 and a 17% drop in net profit.
The airline is also preparing to negotiate with the government to reduce investment requirements for the U-tapao International Airport development project, aiming to move forward ahead of final decisions on the high-speed rail link connecting three major airports.
Following these developments, KSS maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for BA with a target price of THB 23.50 per share, noting that the recent decline in the share price has brought its 2025 forward price-to-earnings multiple to around 9 times—comparable to full-service international peers and below its historical average, which already reflects the anticipated slowdown in the aviation sector for the remainder of the year.
