Earlier this year, Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP)’s shares nosedived after the company revealed a plan to boost market share by slashing the M-150 energy drink price from THB 12 to THB 10 per bottle.
This move fueled concerns that Thailand’s already hyper-competitive energy drink sector would escalate into an all-out price war.
The roots of this shakeup can be traced to 2022, when OSP—squeezed by mounting input costs—raised its flagship M-150 price from THB 10 to THB 12 in hopes of defending margins.
But in a category dominated by price-sensitive blue-collar consumers, this move proved ill-timed, causing OSP’s market share to slip noticeably.
Key rivals took divergent paths: TCP Group’s “Krating Daeng” (Red Bull) matched the THB 12 price tag after OSP’s hike, but Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG)’s “Carabao Dang” held the line at THB 10.
This dynamic pressured M-150, the perennial segment leader, pushing its market share down from above 50% to 44.5%, while Carabao Dang’s continuously climbed.
To recover, OSP launched a new product variant—M-150 “Yellow Cap” with honey, in a 150ml bottle priced at THB 10 —targeting traditional trade outlets in upcountry provinces, especially in regions where market share erosion was most severe, beginning in February 2025.
This bold move was met with skepticism. Some said the cheaper Yellow Cap line might cannibalize the higher-priced M-150 (THB 12) sales. However, nearly four months in, OSP has proven doubters wrong: in April 2025, M-150’s market share edged up to 45% from 44.5% at the end of 2024.
While the brand isn’t back at its historical highs above 50%, the momentum is positive. The latest uptick has reassured investors, many of whom feared OSP was on a one-way path downward.
In contrast, CBG’s market share began to slip, particularly in the northeast —where OSP’s Yellow Cap initiative debuted—and in the south, an area not considered a CBG stronghold. The expectation is that further nationwide expansion of the Yellow Cap line could pressure Carabao Dang even more.
The market responded swiftly to OSP’s revived prospects. OSP shares soared for two consecutive sessions late last week, rising nearly 17%. On Friday, May 23, 2025, the stock jumped 11.84% to close at THB 17.00, while CBG was flat at THB 59.00, a clear sign that market sentiment had pivoted toward OSP.
All eyes are now on whether the M-150 Yellow Cap can spearhead a surge back to OSP’s coveted 50% market share. Analysts have become increasingly bullish, with recommendations ranging from “Buy” to “Hold,” and some setting a target price as high as THB 24.00 per share.
