Benchmark Sugar No. 11 futures could continue to edge lower towards 17 US cents per pound as anticipation of a substantial global surplus weighs on market sentiment.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects that Brazil will achieve record sugar production in the 2025/26 season, rising 2.3% year-on-year to 44.7 million metric tons. This boost positions Brazil as a key contributor to the expected global surplus.
India Meanwhile, Indian sugar output is forecast to surge by 25% in 2025/26, with estimated production reaching 35.3 million metric tons thanks to favorable monsoon conditions and increased sugarcane acreage. The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24—eight days ahead of schedule—marking its earliest start in 16 years. This timely rainfall, combined with above-average pre-monsoon precipitation, has improved soil moisture, enabling earlier planting and potentially higher yields across southern and central India, following a period of severe heat.
Thailand For Thailand, output is predicted to rise by a modest 2% in the 2025/26 cycle, with 10.3 million metric tons anticipated, also based on USDA data.
