The share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) at the time of 3:42 pm on Wednesday was at THB 11.10, a 0.60 or 5.13% decrease with a total trading value of THB 1.06 billion.
The decline as Jasmine International Public Company Limited (SET: JAS), holding rights from The Football Association Premier League Limited (Premier League) to broadcast Premier League and FA Cup matches, unveiled its “NEW SEASON NEW HOME” package.
Key partners include AIS, PLANB, LEO SODA, SIAMSPORT, CPN, and SF. Notably, the Monomax monthly package is priced at 299 baht, with AIS offering a promotional rate of THB 199 for its customers.
Bualuang Securities expects TRUE’s core profit in 2Q25 at THB 3.963 billion, marking an 85% year-over-year increase due primarily to broadband revenue growth and reduced costs across all business units.
However, this represents a 7% decline from the previous quarter, attributed to weaker mobile revenue (impacted by service outages) and broader economic challenges.
True’s mobile revenue is forecasted at THB 32.2 billion (down 2% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter), with fixed broadband (FBB) at THB 6.5 billion (up 3% year-over-year, 2% quarter-over-quarter), while TV and entertainment business revenue continues to shrink to THB 1.5 billion (down 10% year-over-year, 1% quarter-over-quarter).
Looking ahead to 3Q25, despite a projected year-over-year profit growth of 24%, a 9% quarter-over-quarter reduction is expected as competitive pressures from ADVANC and JAS partnership, particularly through free Thai League access and potentially affordable English Premier League (EPL) packages, may erode TRUE’s customer base, notably in TV services (currently 200,000 subscribers, with about 40,000 exclusively for EPL) and some mobile users.
Nonetheless, TRUE is poised to benefit from the 2100/2300 MHz spectrum auction, which directly reduces NT rental costs, potentially boosting 2025 profit by 59% to THB 14.6 billion.
The securities firm maintains a “Speculative Buy,” with a revised target price of THB 15.50, up from THB 15.
Although the stock is buoyed by pre-auction anticipation, competitive pressures, particularly from rival football packages, may challenge Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). However, if TRUE effectively manages costs and implements strategic marketing under its new CEO, profits could surpass expectations in subsequent periods.
