According to an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), as of June (3QFY25), Thailand’s overall budget disbursement rate aligned with historical patterns. Current expenditure disbursements came in above average at 83.9%—outpacing the usual average of 79.4%—totalling 2.33 trillion baht, a 2.7% increase from the previous year.
However, investment disbursements lagged significantly at 37.7%, versus a historical norm of 43.6%. With the roll-out of the Digital Wallet program, investment spending is expected to accelerate in the final quarter, potentially reaching 614 billion baht by year-end—a 38.2% year-over-year increase—bringing full-year disbursement to 63.4%.
KKPS noted that front-loaded spending early in the year means current expenditure growth will likely dip into negative territory in the last quarter. Full-year current expenditure is still expected to reach 2.83 trillion baht, up just 0.1% from last year. The total overall budget disbursement is on track to hit 3.44 trillion baht, representing an annual increase of 5.3%.
From October 2024 through May 2025, government revenue reached 1.704 trillion baht, rising 1.72% year-over-year but falling short of the Ministry of Finance’s target by 12.8 billion baht.
Weaker-than-expected revenue was led by softer excise taxes on automobiles and delayed corporate income tax filings, which were extended into June. This gap may widen as the economic outlook remains subdued; actual nominal GDP growth is projected at just 2.1% (1.6% real GDP plus 0.5% inflation), far below the 5% assumption underpinning revenue estimates.
With only 5 billion baht in fiscal space left out of an 870 billion baht borrowing limit for FY2025—and 865 billion baht already utilized—the government faces rising pressure to either postpone spending or seek new revenue sources, such as higher taxes or larger contributions from state-owned enterprises.
Public debt stood at 65% of GDP in May 2025, still below the 70% statutory ceiling. However, ongoing revenue underperformance and sluggish economic growth could push the ratio higher than previously anticipated, potentially drawing scrutiny from investors and credit rating agencies despite its current level remaining moderate.
