Krungsri Securities (KSS) maintained its SET Index year-end target at 1,370 points, implying a 2025 forecast price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 15.7x and market-wide earnings of THB 87 per share for the year.
This outlook comes despite a mixed second quarter, where listed Thai companies posted a combined net profit of THB 325 billion—a 25.3% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter increase—driven largely by exceptional items, particularly from GULF, SCC, and THAI.
Excluding these extraordinary gains, core Q2 earnings were roughly THB 250 billion, mostly flat year-on-year and down 10.5% from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. First-half earnings now stand at 57% of KSS’ full-year forecast.
Looking ahead, the analyst expects softer performance for the Thai equity market in the third and fourth quarters, projecting a quarter-on-quarter slowdown. The anticipated decline is attributed to the absence of one-off gains from the aforementioned companies, as well as the impact of a 50-basis-point cut in policy rates on bank earnings during June to August. Seasonally weaker sectors such as retail and beverages are also expected to underperform.
Nonetheless, several sectors remain poised to outperform. Export-oriented companies are likely to benefit from front-loaded shipping ahead of new U.S. tariffs, as well as a weaker baht compared to the second quarter.
Hospitals and construction are entering their seasonal peak, while telecoms are set to gain as spectrum auction costs decrease. Lower interest rates are expected to support finance and highly leveraged companies, and sectors like building materials and industrial estates should receive a boost as budget and tariff clarity emerges.
The industrial sector, particularly petrochemicals such as PTTGC and IVL, is also seen stabilizing following supply reductions by China. Stocks with strong individual catalysts, such as AP (on improving sales and transfers) and TVO (on surplus soybean supply), are also highlighted.
Top stock picks for an “Earnings Play” theme include KCE and BH for seasonal/export moves, PYLON as a budget beneficiary, ADVANC in telecom, MTC and KTC on lower rates, WHA for FDI recovery, PTTGC for industry re-rating, and AP, TVO on unique positive factors.
