Piriyapon Kongvanich, Securities Fundamental Investment Analyst at Bualuang Securities, stated that the Thai stock market in 2026 resembles a “come-from-behind horse.”
Although the Thai market could get off to a slow start in the first half of the year due to a political vacuum and a sluggish global economy, there is an opportunity for acceleration in the second half if government formation proceeds smoothly. This momentum will be supported by the recovery of tourism and investments in data centers, and the year-end index target remains at 1,440 points.
SET Index trends in the first half of 2026 are pressured by the political vacuum, which may stall economic stimulus measures and budget disbursement, combined with a weakening global economy. These are limiting factors for the market’s upside in the short term.
However, the key turning point is expected in late 2Q26, provided that government formation is completed on schedule. This would trigger the return of various stimulus measures, driving the economy forward again. Coupled with positive factors such as monetary policy easing and accelerated private sector investment, especially in the data center sector, the Thai stock market could regain attractiveness and recover clearly in the second half of the year.
While historical statistics indicate that the Thai stock market often experiences a pre-election rally, this round is likely to be characterized by a wait-and-see atmosphere as investors await clarity, as such the election theme may not have much of a positive effect.
Additionally, investors should monitor the risk of a delayed government formation, which, if prolonged until the end of Q3, could affect the drafting of the 2027 budget and limit GDP growth in 2026 to only 1.2% (from a baseline of 1.6%), while dragging down listed company earnings per share (EPS) growth to just 4%.
Within the 1,230-1,300 index range in the coming month, the analyst recommended a defensive strategy focusing on “Buy the Dips” and taking advantage of sector rotation for profits, with the core being high-dividend stocks.
Currently, the dividend yield gap between the Thai stock market and the government bonds is at a high level similar to the COVID period, creating a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks with strong cash flow and consistent dividends, especially banks led by SCB (expected yield around 6.1%), TISCO (around 5.3%), and KTB (around 4.5%).
Other interesting sectors include WHAUP (around 4.5%) as a proxy for the data center theme, CPN (around 3.8%) with steady rental income, and PTT (around 3.8%) with strong cash flow. For “Trading” stocks, focus on refiners, supported by specific factors regarding refinery margins.
Top picks from the above list are stocks with clear positive factors: WHAUP and CPN, and those with a chance of better-than-expected 4Q25 earnings: ITC.
