The share price of PTT and its subsidiaries edged higher in the morning session on Thursday, following the positive sentiment on rising crude price amid prospect of lower cost from LNG from the change of price structure.
PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) rose 2.33% to THB 33.00 per share. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) gained 1.35% to THB 113.00 per share, and Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) increased 3.68% to THB 35.25 per share.
Bualuang Securities (BLS) has analyzed the impact of potential policies from the new government on the Thai energy sector, expecting broad-based benefits for stocks in this group and PTT could benefit the most.
A central policy of the new government under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul focuses on lowering the cost of living. Therefore, reducing electricity bills is expected to be among the measures carried forward, alongside ongoing plans to restructure gas prices.
The plan would use gas prices from the Gulf of Thailand as a central reference point to calculate the price of gas supplied to natural gas separation plants and SPP power plants. Typically, gas from the Gulf of Thailand is about $2-3/MMBtu lower than the average pool gas price.
Both PTT and SPP power plant operators would benefit the most from this scheme. Bualuang’s scenario analysis shows an upside to PTT’s profit estimates of about 7% per year.
Meanwhile, CGS International Securities (Thailand) stated that Thailand’s energy sector is poised for a boost as global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is expected to ramp up sharply, easing high gas prices and creating a more favorable environment for the country’s utilities and integrated oil and gas firms.
Amid this backdrop, CGS International Securities has lifted its stance on Thailand’s integrated oil and gas sector to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’. Lower gas prices should alleviate cost pressures on PTT and support greater stability in the group’s gas separation business, pending regulatory approval of a revised pricing mechanism. PTT has seen its full-year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share forecasts tick higher, and the target price has been raised to THB 36.50.
Utilities also stand to benefit. BGRIM, now rated ‘Hold’ with target price at THB 14.00, is poised for sizeable profit gains in line with lower gas costs and favorable power tariff adjustments, with its 2025 core earnings estimate surging by 70%. GPSC, PTT’s power arm, receives an upgraded target price to THB 46 with an Add recommendation, while GULF’s U.S. Jackson Generation project offers further upside if Henry Hub prices remain buoyant, leading to an Add recommendation with a lifted target price at THB 65.00 per share.
Conversely, the chemical segment, and PTT Global Chemical in particular, remains out of favor given persistent risk of elevated feedstock prices, especially for ethane imported from the U.S., which could see no relief from taxes and remain closely linked to high Henry Hub levels.
