Bualuang Securities (BLS) has projected that Thai equities are set for a gradual recovery in 2026, following the economy’s bottoming out during the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
The market had been weighed down by global economic slowdowns and the effects of U.S. tariff measures, with continued pressure expected into the first quarter of 2026. However, a rebound is anticipated from the second quarter onward, in line with global economic improvement, with stronger momentum likely in the latter half of the year.
The brokerage firm set a year-end 2026 target for the SET Index at 1,440 points, based on forecast earnings per share (EPS) of THB 90, representing a 9.8% increase and applying a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.0 times—below the ten-year average.
Key drivers anticipated for the Thai stock market next year include: Firstly, a new global restocking cycle is expected to support industrial recovery in 2026. Before this cycle, however, inventory liquidation is likely due to Trump’s tariff measures, exerting pressure on global trade in 4Q25 and 1Q26. This will likely be followed by a renewed restocking cycle, especially as U.S. PMI inventory-to-new orders ratios are near multi-year lows (excluding crisis periods).
Secondly, private investment—particularly in the digital and electronics sectors—will help buoy the market. Recent significant increases in Board of Investment (BOI) applications are set to turn into capital inflows, typically about a year after approval, suggesting stronger investment contributions in both 2026 and 2027.
Thirdly, capital inflows are expected to be supported by new stimulus measures, specifically the Thailand Individual Savings Account (TISA) project.
Fourthly, a more accommodative monetary policy should further support the economy, with the Bank of Thailand expected to lower the policy rate to 1.00% in 2026 from an estimated 1.25% in 2025.
Finally, a continued rebound in tourism is seen providing an ongoing lift to both the economy and equities, with the sector having bottomed in 2Q25 and expected to recover from 4Q25 into 2026. Tourist arrivals are projected to reach about 33.2 million in 2025, rising to 34 million in 2026.
Notable risks include a weaker-than-expected global economy, challenges in the U.S. labor market, ongoing property sector issues in China, Thailand’s high household debt and non-performing loans, as well as domestic political uncertainties. Delays in forming a government could hinder the disbursement of investment budgets, exacerbating already reduced budget allocations by 7.3% from the prior year.
Against this backdrop, Bualuang recommends a focus on stocks offering clear earnings outlooks and high dividends. Sectors of interest include: data center and digital transformation leaders such as WHA Utilities and Power (WHAUP), Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL), and Gulf Development (GULF); firms expected to continue earnings growth or benefit from government policy, including Central Pattana (CPN), CP All (CPALL), Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL), Airports of Thailand (AOT), and Carabao Group (CBG); high-dividend, steady cash flow companies benefiting from capital market stimulus such as Krung Thai Bank (KTB), SCB X (SCB), and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC); and firms tied to the global recovery, including PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), The Siam Cement (SCC), and i-Tail Corporation (ITC).
For PTTGC and SCC, the analyst suggests accumulating the shares during price weakness in the first quarter of 2026 in anticipation of a recovery during the remainder of the year.
