Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund is on a stronger financial footing as improvements in both its liquidity and overall balance begin to ease industry uncertainty. The recent positive developments come amid ongoing policy shifts and changing market dynamics in the country’s energy sector, offering a brighter outlook for the oil retail and energy industry as a whole.
The Oil Fuel Fund’s liquidity and net deficit have shown improvement, according to a source from the Oil Fuel Fund Office (OFFO). As of September 21, 2025, the fund’s overall net deficit stands at THB 19.16 billion. This includes a positive balance of THB 23.27 billion in the oil account, while the LPG account remains in deficit by THB 42.43 billion.
Currently, the fund collects THB 179.35 million per day from oil-related levies and THB 29.03 million daily from LPG. If oil prices remain stable at current levels, the Oil Fuel Fund is expected to return to a positive balance by the end of this year. Outstanding loans from financial institutions have also decreased significantly, now down to THB 33.47 billion from a previous peak of THB 105.33 billion.
Further policy direction regarding fuel prices is pending, awaiting guidance from the new Minister of Energy. The review is particularly expected for retail oil and LPG pricing, as the previous approach heavily relied on retail prices, resulting in the fund shouldering the full burden of both oil costs and related taxes.
KGI Securities (Thailand) (KGI) expresses its view on the fund developments and the broader outlook for oil retail in Thailand, noting that diesel marketing margins are expected to gradually rise. The oil segment of the fund turned positive on May 18, and as of September 14, showed a surplus of THB 21.9 billion.
Executives from PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG) indicated that if the oil account remains positive at around THB 30-40 billion, similar to 2019-2020 levels, the Ministry of Energy may consider easing controls on diesel marketing margins. Based on the current cash inflow of approximately THB 1 billion per week, the fund’s oil segment could surpass a THB 30 billion surplus within the next two months.
PTG’s third-quarter profit for 2025 is projected to rise year-on-year, with the diesel marketing margin reaching 1.75 baht per liter (a 6% increase from a year earlier), meeting the management’s target of 1.70-1.80 baht per liter. However, profits are likely to decline from 2Q25 due to a 4-6% drop in fuel sales during the rainy season, despite a 5% rise in PTG’s marketing margin.
Non-oil business profits, particularly from coffee sales and the expansion of Punthai Coffee branches, are also expected to show slight growth. The company opened 295 new stores in the first half of the year (a 22% increase year-on-year), with plans to open an additional 305 branches in the second half (up 19% from the first half).
Based on this outlook, the analyst has raised PTG’s target price for 2026 to THB 10.30 per share, up from THB 8.50, reflecting a new P/E multiple of 12.5 times. This revision considers the positive industry outlook following the oil segment’s return to surplus and improved policy sentiment with the appointment of a new Energy Minister. PTG’s net profit forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at THB 1.4 billion, reflecting expectations for a higher marketing margin of 1.73 baht per liter (up 3% year-on-year).
Bualuang Securities (BLS) noted that oil retail stocks such as PTT Oil and Retail Business (SET: OR), PTG, and Susco (SET: SUSCO) have benefited directly from the improved Oil Fuel Fund situation. The favorable comparison with past periods of state intervention—when high global oil prices led to government measures to cap domestic prices—has had a significant impact on the operating environment and margins for retail fuel companies.
With the fund now in surplus, measures to directly control retail fuel prices may diminish, supporting an increase in industry marketing margins.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) explained that the recent shift of the Oil Fuel Fund’s oil segment into a positive balance has indirectly benefited the overall domestic economy. This improvement plays a crucial role in maintaining fuel price stability within the country, which is a key factor in keeping overall energy prices steady.
This positive signal is likely to serve as a catalyst for major energy and oil retail stocks—including PTT (SET: PTT), Thai Oil (SET: TOP), and OR—which are influential in determining the direction of fuel prices domestically. Furthermore, the fund’s improved financial health helps alleviate long-standing concerns about policy risks that have pressured the energy sector.
