JP Morgan sees PTT Group’s recent asset monetizations and restructuring initiatives as the first moves in a broader effort to optimize group assets, bolster balance sheets, and enhance shareholder returns. The investment bank has upgraded PTT Oil and Retail Business (SET: OR) to Overweight (OW), expecting outperformance from stabilizing market share and oil margins and Thai Oil (SET: TOP) to Neutral, expecting THB 8 per share cash inflows from the transaction with PTT. Additionally, JPMorgan shifted its group preference to PTT > PTTGC > OR > TOP > PTTEP.
Recent asset monetizations will yield significant cash inflows: TOP will receive approximately Bt18 billion and PTTGC about Bt9 billion through lease or sale-and-leaseback deals with PTT Tank (majority owned by TOP). While the transactions will boost subsidiaries’ finances, JPMorgan believes the market may view this as PTT (the parent company) transferring cash to its subsidiaries to help them deleverage. These measures are considered early steps in a larger downstream portfolio reshaping and PTT may monetize PTT Tank itself as part of a broader Bt100-billion asset monetization plan.
While earnings across the PTT Group remain challenged, particularly after a subdued 3Q25 results season, the downstream subsidiaries (TOP, PTTGC, OR) have outperformed the SET index by roughly 15% over the past three months. This relative strength is attributed to industry adjustments (especially in China), strategic management actions, and higher investor risk appetite. JPMorgan anticipates that shareholder return initiatives and further value-accretive corporate actions will remain crucial for stock performance, with actual earnings improvements becoming more prominent in FY26.
For OR, JPMorgan sees outperformance momentum continuing—driven by a stable retail oil market share (above 35%) and strong non-oil margins. The target price has been set at Bt16/share for June 2026, with forecasts for FY25–26 core EPS raised by about 16%. For TOP, which has been the best performer in the group year-to-date, JPMorgan upgrades from Underweight to Neutral, with a June 2026 target price of Bt37/share. Asset monetization and seasonal diesel margin strength should provide further upside, though concerns remain over negative free cash flow as TOP’s capex rises from 2026 onward. In addition, JPMorgan maintained Overweight on PTTGC with a target price at THB 30.00 per share and Underweight for PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP) at a target price of THB 98.00 per share.
