Analysts at Land and Houses Securities stated that Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) benefits from the United States’ inclusion of PET plastic resin in the Reciprocal Tariff, which results in increased import tariffs. This gives domestic producers (such as IVL) a competitive edge as competitors’ costs rise.
For Q3/2025, the PET spread is expected to decrease seasonally, but this will be offset by the recovery of Indovinya, a subsidiary, as downtime for maintenance is reduced. Additionally, IVL will recognize a full quarter of profit from EPL, a leading global PE plastic packaging producer in India. In the long term, the company will be further supported by the IPOs of two businesses: Indovinya and Indovida (Packaging).
Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities noted that IVL has the potential to outperform, as PET and PTA businesses directly benefit from its US business base. Especially, the PET business in the US will see positive momentum thanks to trade protection measures against Asia and Mexico. The US PET business represents one-third of revenues and ranks second in the US. Among global foreign companies with US operations, IVL (Thailand) is second (31% of revenues in the US), and ALPEK (Mexico) is third (30% of revenues).
Overall, considering the US business and other countries, IVL has better prospects. ALPEK’s core revenue is from Mexico (39%), which faces more US trade barriers compared to IVL, whose revenue is more diversified (56%). However, ALPEK shares have risen 22% since September 2025, while IVL fell 5%. This is seen as an opportunity for IVL’s share price to catch up. Fundamentally, IVL is expected to gradually outperform. The recommendation is “Buy” with a 2026 target price of 26 baht per share.
In an additional note from Krungsri Securities on Friday, the firm states that stocks in the Anti-involution theme were sold off due to negative sentiment from a sharp -2% decline in oil prices, reaching the lowest level in four months. However, the latest directive from China’s Ministry of Industry, announced on September 25, remains a positive signal for the direction of Anti-involution and the outlook for the mid- to downstream industry segment, which has already moved past its bottom. This is seen as an accumulation opportunity for the medium to long term in stocks such as PTTGC, IVL, TOP, and PTT.
China is focusing on shifting its production processes to products with higher added value in greater proportion, targeting a 5% increase in value each year. This will impact excess supply, causing it to slow or increase only slightly in the next one to three years, as the main emphasis is on price and value increases, while volume is likely to remain steady or decline slightly due to the adjusted approach.
Daol Securities (Thailand) maintains a neutral outlook for IVL’s business prospects, expecting a recovery in the second half of this year, as overall sales volume should improve compared to the first half. Support comes from the resumption of operations at Combined PET (CPET) and Indovinya plants after Q2 maintenance shutdowns, in addition to increasing PET product demand during Europe’s summer.
Moreover, Adjusted EBITDA is projected to improve from the first half, in line with rising EMEA Industry Integrated PET spread, reflecting stronger overall demand. At the same time, the US MTBE spread has also risen in Q3/2025 during the US driving season. The recommendation remains “Hold” with an unchanged target price of 22 baht per share.
