KGI Securities maintains its ‘Neutral’ stance on Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT), citing expectations of subdued earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (ending September).
The brokerage firm foresees AOT posting a 4Q25 net profit of THB 3.66 billion, marking a 14.4% decline year-on-year and a 5.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter. This would bring the full-year 2025 profit to THB 17.9 billion, down 6.6% from last year and about 5.9% below KGI’s forecast.
Passenger traffic is anticipated to soften at 28.75 million, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, including 17.17 million international and 11.58 million domestic travelers. Total flights are projected at 185,833, a slight 0.9% year-on-year increase. Revenues for the quarter are expected to reach nearly THB 15.4 billion, falling 8% from the previous year but edging up 0.6% from the prior quarter, while EBIT margin remains soft at 31.0%.
The unexciting earnings are primarily linked to Thailand’s low tourism season, putting pressure on both aero and non-aero incomes. Meanwhile, the analyst notes that certain factors could impact AOT’s longer-term outlook.
Notably, a potential conclusion in October regarding the lucrative King Power contract may offer upside beyond the current 20% revenue-sharing expectation for the fiscal year 2026.
Furthermore, KGI anticipates the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) may approve an increase in passenger service charges (PSC) for both international and domestic routes, as AOT seeks to reflect airport investments and meet global standards. The subject is expected to be concluded by October or November.
Despite year-to-date tourist arrivals at 24.57 million, which represents a 7.5% year-on-year decrease, recent Chinese Golden Week figures gave a short-term boost, with arrivals hitting 132,021 in a single week (+67% WoW). For the rest of 2025, KGI maintains its forecast for 34.1 million arrivals (-3.9% year-on-year), rising to 35.5 million (+4.1% year-on-year) for 2026.
Following these, KGI Securities gives AOT a target price of THB 34.00 per share, citing potential upside from a PSC adjustment.
