The Thai stock market rose last Friday, October 24, buoyed by positive international factors. Energy stocks saw strong buying after crude oil prices surged over 7% at the end of last week (October 23-24, 2025), hitting a four-month high. This followed the United States sanctioning LUKOIL and ROSNEFT, two major Russian oil producers that account for nearly 50% of Russia’s oil exports, and 5% of global oil production.
This situation led to concerns about a slowdown in global supply and sparked speculative buying in energy and refinery stocks, including PTT PCL (SET: PTT), PTT Exploration and Production PCL (SET: PTTEP), BCPG PCL (SET: BCPG), Star Petroleum Refining PCL (SET: SPRC), Bangchak Sriracha PCL (SET: BSRC), and Thai Oil PCL (SET: TOP).
Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) added two Chinese refineries and Chinaoil Hong Kong to its blacklist after discovering they continued to purchase Russian crude oil. According to official EU documents released Thursday (October 23), the sanctioned refineries are Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, with a combined production capacity of 600,000 barrels per day, about 3% of China’s total refined oil output of 19 million barrels per day.
Energy
UOBKayhian Securities (Thailand) stated that the energy sector benefited from the U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the U.S. and India are likely to put pressure on India to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, thereby supporting higher oil prices.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) indicated that the main driving factor for oil and refinery stocks today comes from a sharp recovery in oil prices after crude oil surged by 5% in a single day, following the U.S. sanctioning two major Russian oil firms. This supports stocks in the oil and refinery sector such as PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, Bangchak Corporation PCL (SET: BCP) and IRPC PCL (SET: IRPC). However, given the strong rise in oil prices, the recommendation is “Trading” for speculation.
Krungsri Securities assessed that upstream energy stocks and oil logistics service providers enjoy immediate price benefits, with PTTEP being favored in the short term, while PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC) and TOP are recommended for the medium term.
As for India, although there is a possibility to review contracts and reduce oil imports from Russia, in practice there are several obstacles — including high discount prices and refinery requirements — causing the reduction in imports to occur gradually. This helps mitigate the risk of an immediate global supply shock, but in the medium term, it continues to increase pressure on oil prices as replacement costs rise.
Refinery
Land and Houses Securities stated that the 3Q25 earnings outlook for BCP is expected to be strong, with net profit estimated at THB 1.7 billion, rebounding from a net loss of THB 2.1 billion in 3Q24 and a net loss of THB 2.6 billion in 2Q25. Profits increased across all business segments — including refinery (BCP and BSRC), oil retail, BCPG, BBGI PCL (SET: BBGI), and OKEA ASA (OKEA).
The Bangchak group’s refining capacity now stands at 265,000 barrels per day, up 2% YoY and 10% QoQ. Refining margin is expected at USD 7.5 per barrel, up 201% YoY and 69% QoQ. BCP benefited from Brent crude oil prices being lower than Dubai and saw a 2% increase in oil retail sales. BCPG is expected to report profit growth to THB 677 million baht from profit share of its U.S.-based gas power plant, while BBGI and OKEA profits are expected to rise with higher sales volumes and crude oil prices.
BCP has started a tender offer for BSRC shares during November 24 – 27, 2025, totaling 25 trading days, with an exchange ratio of 1 new BCP share for 6.5 BSRC shares. The latest price reflects a ratio of 6.65 times, making the BSRC share purchase an appealing option. Analysts maintain a “BUY” recommendation, raising the target price to THB 41 per share.
For SPRC, 3Q25 net profit is forecast at THB 1.1 billion, swinging from a net loss of THB 2.2 billion in the prior year and a net loss of THB 812 million in 2Q25. This turnaround is due to increased refining volume and margin, as well as oil inventory gains. Crude intake rose to 165,000 barrels per day, up 5%, and refining margin was at USD 5.2 per barrel, up 23%. Oil inventory gains reached USD 0.85 per barrel, or about THB 400 million, and foreign exchange (FX) gains were THB 195 million.
SPRC shares have dropped more than 20% in the past two months, but the P/B ratio is 0.5 times, and dividend yield has increased to 8%. Analysts viewed concerns are fully reflected and maintain a “BUY” recommendation with a new target price of THB 6.50 per share.
TOP is expected to post 3Q25 net profit of THB 2 billion, swinging from a net loss of THB 4.2 billion in the prior year but down from THB 6.5 billion net profit in 2Q25, due to the absence of the previous quarter’s asset sale capital gain. Refining capacity dropped to 231,000 barrels per day due to a 30-day shutdown of the CDU-3 unit, resulting in gross refining margin (GRM) falling to USD 3.5 per barrel. Total gross integrated margin (GIM) from all businesses is at USD 5 per barrel.
Analysts have upgraded their recommendation to “BUY” with a new target price for TOP at THB 44 per share. They see TOP’s 3Q25 profit lagging BCP and SPRC as temporary and expect the company to fully benefit from higher refining margins in 4Q25, with its asset monetization plan strengthening its financial position next year.
