According to an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG) is expected to face a significant earnings contraction in the third quarter of 2025.
The analyst forecasts CHG’s profit to drop by 32% year-on-year to THB 285 million, citing multiple sector headwinds that are likely to weigh on the company’s financial performance during the period.
For the third quarter, general patient revenue is projected to decline by 2% year-on-year due to a reduction in Gastric Sleeve surgery cases. Even when this factor is excluded, general patient revenue is anticipated to remain flat, under pressure from the lack of an influenza outbreak during July and August.
Revenue generated from international patients is expected to see marginal growth, as increased revenue from Middle Eastern patients offsets a sharp 50%-60% decline in Cambodian patient revenue. Meanwhile, income from Social Security Office (SSO) patients is set to fall by 15% as the prior period’s gain from chronic disease treatments—amounting to THB 98 million in 3Q24—will not recur.
Losses at CHG Mae Sot are expected to narrow slightly, improving from THB 13 million in 3Q24 to THB 10 million. KKPS projects CHG’s total revenue to drop by 6% year-on-year, with profit contracting by 32% due primarily to the absence of last year’s one-off SSO gains. Stripping out this factor, core profit is still expected to fall by 16% year-on-year but should show a sequential improvement of 7% from the previous quarter.
However, the brokerage firm anticipates a strong rebound for CHG in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a low comparison base in 4Q24 following a THB 106 million SSO revenue reversal related to an insufficient high-cost-care budget. For this year, the SSO has guaranteed payments at THB 12,000 per relative weight.
The SSO also began approving Gastric Sleeve surgery cases from late 3Q25, which should lead to a growth in procedures and revenues in the final quarter. Additionally, the Mae Sot facility achieved breakeven in September, further supporting improved group performance.
Looking ahead, KKPS expects CHG’s quarterly profit to nearly triple, jumping from THB 92 million in 4Q24 to between THB 260-270 million in 4Q25.
Despite a challenging near-term outlook, KKPS reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on CHG, viewing the current market price as reflective of the negative developments already. With earnings growth expected to resume from 4Q25 and the stock trading at an attractive 15x 2026E P/E versus its historical forward average of 32.4x, the analyst sees room for valuation upside and maintains its target price at THB 2.20 per share.
