Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) is expected to report a 28% year-on-year decline in core profit for the third quarter of 2025, with profits falling to THB 325 million, according to a recent outlook from Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS).
The firm projects a 5% year-on-year drop in general patient revenue for the quarter, attributing the decrease to the lack of an influenza outbreak during July and August as well as a steep fall in patient visits from Cambodia—which historically accounts for approximately 3-4% of BCH’s revenue.
Revenue from Social Security Office (SSO) patients is expected to be down 6% year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of an extra gain from chronic disease treatments recorded in the prior year’s third quarter (THB 77 million).
Overall, KKPS anticipates BCH’s total revenue will contract by 5% year-on-year, with the core profit set to decrease by 28% to THB 325 million. The miss on earnings is largely attributed to the absence of one-time gain from SSO. Adjusting for the previous year’s SSO impact, KKPS notes that core profit would fall 17% year-on-year but increase by 1% compared to the preceding quarter.
Despite the subdued outlook for Q3, KKPS forecasts a strong recovery in the final quarter of the year. This anticipated turnaround is based on the lower base in 4Q24, when BCH reversed THB 164 million in SSO revenue due to an insufficient high-cost care budget. For 2025, the SSO is guaranteeing reimbursements at THB 12,000 per RW.
To offset declining revenue from Cambodian visitors, BCH has directed those unable to travel to Thailand to its KIH Vientiane facility. The hospital operator is also ramping up marketing efforts to attract more Thai patients in the last quarter. Furthermore, KH Ari Radiation Oncology’s participation in the NHSO’s Cancer Anywhere program from December 2025 allows it to serve NHSO cancer patients, opening up additional revenue streams.
KKPS, therefore, anticipates a return to revenue growth in October, and projects core profit to double in 4Q25 from THB 171 million in 4Q24 to THB 350-360 million.
Following the weakness in Q3, KKPS has trimmed its 2025-2028 earnings forecast for BCH by 8-10% and rolled forward its discounted cash flow valuation to 2026, resulting in a new price objective of THB 18 per share. The brokerage maintains a Buy rating, noting that BCH’s share price has already factored in the negative news and should benefit from resuming earnings growth from 4Q25 onwards.
BCH is currently trading at 17 times its forecasted 2026 P/E, compared to its historical average of 23 times. A near-term potential catalyst could be an increase in the overall SSO budget and payment rates in 2026, following recent discussions between the Private Hospital Association of Thailand and the Minister of Labor aimed at adjusting reimbursement rates in line with rising costs.
