Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) notes in its analysis that Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) is expected to post resilient results for the third quarter of 2025, with profit drivers shifting amid sector headwinds and opportunities.
The analyst expects GULF’s core profit for the third quarter of 2025 to be THB 6.9 billion, representing a slight 2% drop quarter-on-quarter. Notably, there is no year-on-year comparison due to the amalgamation with INTUCH that took effect on 1 April 2025.
Reported net profit—including foreign exchange impact—is forecast at THB 7 billion, down 10% quarter-on-quarter, as FX gains are expected to decrease from THB 650 million in the previous quarter to THB 85 million, in line with the company’s U.S. dollar debt of nearly USD 4 billion.
Excluding dividend income from KBANK and profit contribution from ADVANC, GULF’s third-quarter core profit growth is estimated at 10% quarter-on-quarter.
Meanwhile, KKPS expects a strong boost for GULF in the fourth quarter, driven by renewables—namely, high seasonality for wind and new capacity additions in solar, with the ramping up of the digital business also providing support.
On the revenue front, the company’s sales in 3Q25 are expected to slip 3% quarter-on-quarter to THB 37 billion, primarily due to seasonal declines in IPP output, while SPP sales volumes to industrial users remain stable at around 6% of total volume.
EBITDA margin (including equity income) is forecast to improve by 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a 6% drop in energy costs and increased equity income. Though dividend income—mainly from KBANK—is projected to drop by 75% quarter-on-quarter to THB 248 million, this is expected to be offset by equity income growth.
Profit-sharing from associated companies is forecast at THB 5.9 billion for 3Q25, up 10% quarter-on-quarter. Profit-sharing from ADVANC, which constitutes 64% of total equity income to GULF, is expected to increase 9% to THB 3.8 billion, benefiting from lower spectrum cost savings.
The Jackson, USA merchant power plant (1,200MW, 7% of equity MW contribution to GULF) is seen doubling its profit contribution quarter-on-quarter to THB 250 million, driven by a tenfold surge in electricity tariffs. Furthermore, Gulf Gunkul Corporation (GGC) is also expected to double its profit-sharing to THB 182 million, supported by growth in wind energy volumes.
Following these developments, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on GULF, with a target price of THB 57 per share, citing long-term dividend growth prospects and additional upside potential from the company’s ongoing capacity expansion.
