Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) with a target price of THB 21 per share, anticipating a 9% year-on-year decline in core profit to THB 830 million for 3Q25.
The broker expects overall 3Q25 passenger volumes to drop slightly by 1% year-on-year, as Samui routes are set to rise 6-8% while non-Samui routes may fall by over 10% due to weak tourism and reduced Cambodia flights.
While load factor should decrease by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 76%, this is an improvement from the first half’s results. Flat ticket fares, supported by robust demand for the Samui route, mean total passenger revenue is anticipated to slip just 1% year-on-year.
In contrast, non-airline revenue is projected to grow 7% year-on-year, led by catering, ground-handling, and higher passenger service charges. Dividends from BDMS and share income are expected to remain unchanged compared to the same period last year.
With fuel costs set to decline by 11% year-on-year from lower jet spot prices and non-fuel costs increasing by 6%, overall net profit is forecast to jump 21% year-on-year to THB 810 million, as foreign exchange losses narrow to THB 20 million from THB 237 million in the previous year.
For 4Q25, Samui passenger volume is expected to stay strong, according to CAAT data, with a 10% year-on-year rise in September and October and further support from increased flight limits at Samui Airport.
Bangkok Airways has adapted its strategy by focusing more on Samui routes and reducing non-Samui services, aiming to improve yields and alleviate recent market concerns after its share price dropped 12% in the past month.
With the company trading at just 7x 2026E P/E, offering an 8% prospective dividend yield and 21% ROE, the brokerage firm maintains a positive outlook on BA.
