Kiatnakin Phatra Securities anticipates a mild cyclical rebound for Thailand’s residential property sector in 2026, following a deep trough in 2025—a year in which Bangkok and vicinity presales hit a 23-year low. The brokerage highlights that while 2025 will mark the sector’s bottom, the subsequent recovery will be modest and primarily benefit large, well-capitalized developers such as AP, SIRI, and SPALI. Of these, SPALI stands out as the top pick due to its robust balance sheet, operational efficiency, and favorable presales outlook, which positions it for potential margin upside.
Throughout 2025, the sector traded at trough valuations, with price-to-earnings ratios (PERs) between 7.0x and 8.3x—levels last seen during significant crises like the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 lockdown. These depressed valuations reflected significant contractions in presales and core profit. However, Kiatnakin Phatra expects a slight sector presales recovery of 3% in 2026 (for the top ten listed firms) and 6% for the leading three developers (AP, SIRI and SPALI). With a projected 5% core profit growth and dividend yields ranging from 5.0% to 8.0%, further downside valuation risk is seen as limited.
Two trends offer opportunity for the sector: the decentralization of housing demand from Bangkok to major provincial cities and increasing interest in second-hand homes given affordability constraints. The survey also finds the condo segment to be relatively attractive, with falling inventories over six consecutive years indicating faster supply normalization compared to landed housing, where inventories continue to expand.
On the supply side, top developers’ aggregate launch values are projected to decrease for a second straight year in 2025, stabilizing thereafter. Meanwhile, the mortgage market remains selective. After ten successive quarters of contraction, new mortgage growth is beginning to recover, with outstanding mortgage loans rising slightly in 2025. The brokerage’s bank analyst forecasts mortgage growth of 1.7% in 2026, supported by refinancing and new lending to top-performing developers.
Overall, Kiatnakin Phatra adopts a selective stance for 2026, favouring SPALI for its stability and market positioning, with a cautiously optimistic view for the sector’s leading players as the rebound takes hold.
Notably, Kiatnakin lifted the target price of AP to THB 8.30 from THB 7.90, but maintained a Neutral recommendation. SPALI and SIRI were maintained as BUY with an unchanged target price at THB 18.9 and 1.66 per share, respectively. Additionally, LH was rated Underperform with an unchanged target at THB 3.50 per share.
