At present, the real estate market faces worrisome conditions, with disappearing purchasing power and slow sales, leading to an accumulated unsold property value of up to THB 2 trillion. As a result, real estate investments and sector stocks have become practically off-limits.
According to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), over the past eight months, transfer and sales volumes have not recovered, with the market remaining in a state of low transfers and slow sellouts, as reflected by nationwide transfer data. New and second-hand home transfers reached 196,223 units, down 10.6%, with a value of THB 527.94 billion, down 13.6%. This forecasts a slowdown in both unit numbers and total value for 2025-2026.
For 2025, transfers are expected at 343,678 units, down 1.2%, valued at THB 964.02 billion, down 1.7%. In 2026, expected transfers are 343,433 units, a 0.07% drop, worth THB 963.55 billion, down 0.05%. This marks the fourth consecutive annual decrease across all price levels. Notably, second-hand homes have disrupted new homes, making up 66% of transferred units and 49% of transferred value.
In the first half of the year, new residential launches dropped 49% to 28,884 units, worth THB 197.72 billion, down 47.6%. New units sold dropped 31.3% to 38,056 units, valued at THB 207.63 billion, down 29.1%. In the THB 40 – 500 million segment, sales fell 51.5% due to measures against scammer groups.
Units priced below THB 1 million were hit by the weakened purchasing power of lower-income buyers. It is expected that new residential launches in 2025 will slow to 74,544 units, down 31.2%, worth THB 472.30 billion, down 38.6%. In 2026, new launches are forecast at 75,000 units, up 0.6%, valued at THB 487,500 million, up 3.2%.
As of the first half of this year, nationwide unsold residential units rose 9.5% to 363,813 units, with value increasing 18% to THB 2.07 trillion. The absorption rate has slowed, with the average time to sell rising from 36 to 57 months. Developers with ready-to-transfer inventories are accelerating promotional campaigns, especially small and mid-sized operators, to maintain liquidity. For ready-to-sell second-hand homes, there are 189,382 units, with the average selling period increasing from 8 to 12 months.
Looking ahead to 2025 – 2026, both sales and transfers will remain sluggish. Supporting factors include the transfer and mortgage fee reduction, more relaxed LTV measures until June 30, 2026, the prospect of declining interest rates, and government support for low-interest loans.
However, risks include a likely economic slowdown in the second half of the year, liquidity concerns for small and mid-sized developers, declining tourist numbers, and issues with the Thai – Cambodian border, all impacting foreign buying, especially in the condominium market where Chinese demand has dropped significantly.
