Bualuang Securities (BLS) assesses that the Thai stock market has risen in anticipation before the election, prompting investors to weigh whether, once political uncertainty eases, the market will continue moving upward, fluctuate in consolidation, or face a “sell-on-fact” scenario.
A survey found that around 40% expect the market to consolidate while awaiting clarity regarding the formation of a new government. About 30% still see further upside opportunities as political concerns abate. Negative outlooks remain limited, with only 10% expecting aggressive selling pressure.
The analyst noted that new-generation investors (Gen Z / Gen Y) are more cautious, while older investors continue to maintain a positive market outlook.
In terms of political factors, the variable that most affects the short-term market is the “winning party” (weighing around 50%), which is more significant than the form of a coalition government (20%), the economic team (15%), or the speed of government formation (13%). This reflects that the market places more importance on the key political player than the process itself.
Therefore, if a landslide scenario occurs, the Bhumjaithai Party is viewed as the most positive for the market, with over 60% of respondents holding an optimistic view. Views regarding the People’s Party remain highly divided, while the Pheu Thai Party is evaluated at a moderate level.
Combining survey results with the average of four research polls, Bualuang forecasts three main coalition government scenarios along with technical SET Index ranges as follows:
- People’s Party + Pheu Thai — Highest probability mathematically; market responds cautiously; SET Index range 1,400–1,420 points.
- Bhumjaithai + Pheu Thai — Best risk–reward scenario; market responds positively; SET Index range 1,450–1,480 points.
- People’s Party + Bhumjaithai — Lowest probability; market response is limited; SET Index range around 1,380 points.
As for investment strategy, Bualuang stated that all main scenarios point in the same direction: post-election, the market is likely to be “sideways-up.” Investors can maintain their investment proportions without having to aggressively reduce risk solely due to political factors, but may gradually lock in profits when appropriate. The current market isn’t driven only by the election; investors should also follow investment themes and selective stock picking.
Recommended themes are “Quality Value” (stocks with strong fundamentals, not fully valued, stable earnings, low volatility, and supported by government policies) and “Foreign Radar” (stocks consistently accumulated by foreign investors across multiple market cycles).
