Mr. Pongpat Siripipat, Investment Analyst from InnovestX Securities, a securities company in the SCBX group, stated in “Kaohoon” program on November 03, 2025, that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fluctuate sideways within a narrow range due to the recent weakening, caused by Delta Electronics Thailand PCL (SET: DELTA) being subject to the Cash Balance measure.
Nonetheless, there is still positive sentiment from the banking sector as there are signs that the financial institutes may initiate the share repurchase program or increase dividend payout ratio amid high liquidity. According to Mr. Pongpat, the average tier 1 ratio for the banks is about 17 – 20%, higher than the optimal level of 14 – 15%.
Furthermore, Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB) recently announced there is a likelihood that its dividend ratio may increase, with InnovestX Securities forecasting a full-year dividend of approximately THB 2.15 – 2.35 baht per share, increased from the estimation of THB 1.65 per share, and a payout ratio of between 62 – 73%. Last week, Kasikornbank PCL (SET: KBANK) also announced a major share repurchase program valued up to THB 8.8 billion.
The analyst estimated that these trends will occur across the banking sector, boosting the trading in the stock market. Mr. Pongpat also recommended investors to focus on this sector.
He further added that the SET Index may reach 1,345 points before the end of the year, citing stimulus measures that various political parties are likely to impose before dissolution of the parliament. However, he estimated that today’s support levels will be 1,300 points, and if the index fell below, it could decrease to 1,290 – 1,280 points.
Mr. Pongpat also highlighted several key developments that could influence the market outlook, notably the cabinet’s initiative to restructure debt by having asset management companies acquire non-performing loans valued under THB 100,000. He indicated that this move is expected to boost purchasing power.
Additionally, Mr. Pongpat noted that overall third-quarter earnings are anticipated to be modest, while pointing to the likelihood of the Monetary Policy Committee implementing a more aggressive interest rate cut than the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to his estimates, there could be one further rate reduction this year, followed by two additional cuts in the year ahead.
Mr. Pongpat further remarked that should the U.S. government shutdown conclude, the administration is expected to release its employment report next week. This data, he noted, holds significant weight for investors, given that the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions are closely aligned with economic data.
If the shutdown persists, however, Mr. Pongpat pointed out that the ADP National Employment Report, compiled by the private sector, will likely still be published. Still, he anticipated that the report will show that the employment rate has declined.
