i-Tail Corporation Pcl. (SET: ITC) delivered a solid set of third-quarter results, prompting Maybank Securities (Thailand) to reaffirm its positive stance on the stock. The brokerage maintained ITC as its “Top Pick” in the food sector, citing resilient performance, improving margins, and strong long-term growth visibility.
ITC reported a core net profit of THB 812 million for 3Q25 — down 17% year-on-year (YoY) but up 17% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). The figure exceeded consensus estimates by 5%, reflecting stronger-than-expected operational performance.
Key drivers behind the earnings beat included higher gross profit margin (GPM) and robust sales. GPM came in at 25.4%, slightly higher than 2Q25’s 25.0%, due to tariff support provided to US clients and the appreciation of the Thai baht. Meanwhile, SG&A-to-sales ratio remained stable QoQ but increased YoY on higher transformation costs.
4Q25 Outlook:
Management expects a QoQ dip or flat in earnings in 4Q25, largely due to softer seasonal demand and order pull-forward from the previous quarter. However, margins should remain healthy thanks to continued sales of high-margin premium products.
US orders — particularly in pet treats — remain solid, and management sees no evidence of front-loaded demand. The company is monitoring end-consumer feedback following recent shelf price adjustments by its clients.
FY25–FY26 Targets:
- For FY25, ITC maintained sales and GPM growth targets at +3–5% and 23–25%, respectively, consistent with consensus forecasts.
- For FY26, the company targets 6–9% sales growth (vs. Maybank’s 6% forecast), driven by:
- The full-year contribution of product launches from 2Q25, and
- New product innovations and projects in the pipeline.
Maybank reiterated its ‘BUY’ rating on ITC with a target price (TP) of THB 18.60, representing about 13% upside from the last close at THB 17.20
