Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has released its latest analysis on Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), noting that the company’s third-quarter 2025 results were in line with expectations and maintained a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of THB 57.00 per share.
GULF’s core profit for 3Q25 reached THB 7.3 billion, marking a 32% increase year-on-year and a 3% rise quarter-on-quarter, consistent with both KKPS’ and consensus forecasts. The company’s core profit for the six months from April to September accounted for 62% of the analyst’s 2025 estimate, and expectations remain positive for a seasonally strong fourth quarter.
Notably, when excluding dividend income from KBANK and profit-sharing from ADVANC, core profit still grew by 10% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter.
Operating results showed robust figures, with EBIT up 30% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter to THB 12.3 billion, while EBITDA grew by 28% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter to THB 13.6 billion.
Despite declines in gas-fired power revenue, EBITDA excluding joint ventures recorded 59% year-on-year growth, helped by an 11% reduction in gas costs. Meanwhile, the figure decreased 2% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to planned maintenance shutdowns at key projects, namely GSRC project unit 2 (24 days) and GPD project unit 2 (21 days).
Profit-sharing from associated companies was strong at THB 5.8 billion, up 1% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. This growth was driven by lower spectrum costs at ADVANC, increased capacity payments for the Jackson project, and higher wind speed benefits at Gulf Gunkul Corporation (GGC).
GULF reported total revenue of THB 30 billion, down 4% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter. Gas-fired power remained the largest contributor at 77%, followed by gas at 11%, renewable power at 4%, infrastructure at 3%, and satellite at 2%. Digital revenue and new business income more than doubled from the previous quarter to THB 85 million.
KKPS maintains its positive outlook for GULF, citing solid ongoing performance and anticipating a strong fourth quarter.
