Krungsri Securities has maintained its bullish outlook on the Thai utilities sector, following the recent regulatory hearing on electricity tariffs for January–April 2026. According to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), the lowest scenario presented would keep the electricity tariff (Ft) at 3.94 baht per unit—the same level as the current rate for September–December 2025. This move is aimed at allowing the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to recover its outstanding Accumulated Fuel Costs (AF).
Analysts at Krungsri Securities see this development as positive for small power producers (SPPs), as the house’s estimates also anticipate an average power rate around 3.9 baht per unit for 2026. With EGAT’s AF standing at 47 billion baht in the current period, analysts believe the room for electricity tariff reductions in 2026 remains limited. They forecast the 2026 power tariff to remain in the 3.90–3.94 baht/unit range, closely matching their own estimate of 3.90 baht/unit. Some portion of repayment to EGAT is also expected to be allocated towards ongoing grid and infrastructure development—particularly for the future needs of data centers.
On the profit sensitivity front, Krungsri notes that for every 0.01 baht (1 satang) the Ft in 2026 exceeds their forecast of 3.9 baht per unit, normal profit projections for listed power players would see a boost: GULF (Gulf Development) by 0.07%, GPSC (Global Power Synergy) by 0.84%, and BGRIM (B.Grimm Power) by 0.9%.
Krungsri Securities reaffirms its bullish stance on the power sector. Its top picks remain GULF (Buy, 2026 target price: 59.0 baht) and BGRIM (Buy, 2026 target price: 19.0 baht).
