Gold’s upward momentum could see prices exceed $5,000 per ounce next year, largely buoyed by robust central bank demand from emerging markets, according to JP Morgan Private Bank.
Alex Wolf, global head of macro and fixed income strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank, told reporters that the precious metal could reach $5,200-$5,300 by the end of 2026, marking a gain of more than 25% from current levels. Central bank accumulation has been a key engine of gold’s surge in recent years as policymakers seek diversification and a safer store of value.
Gold prices hit record highs above $4,380 in October before tapering off in recent weeks, yet the metal remains up over 50% year-to-date. Wolf noted that for many central banks, especially those in emerging economies, gold accounts for only a minor share of their total foreign currency reserves. He added that, while recent price gains may lead these institutions to slow their purchases, central banks are nonetheless expected to continue increasing their holdings.
World Gold Council data show central banks purchased 634 tons of gold through September, trailing the last three years’ equivalent periods but remaining well above the average before 2022. Full-year central bank purchases are expected to land between 750 and 900 tons in 2025, according to WGC projections.
China has led recent official sector gold buying, aiming for reduced reliance on dollar-centric global financial markets. Other countries including Poland, Turkey, and Kazakhstan have also increased their reserves.
Wolf stated that since many emerging markets have excess funds from budget surpluses, they are seeking ways to invest this capital. While the US dollar remains their primary reserve asset, these countries are gradually allocating a larger portion of their reserves to gold, rather than using it as a full replacement for the dollar.
JP Morgan’s forecast counts among Wall Street’s most optimistic, despite gold’s recent 6% pullback since the record set in late October. Goldman Sachs also maintains a constructive stance, seeing gold reach $4,900 by the end of 2026.
Wolf pointed out that additional factors could lift gold prices, such as a rise in investor interest and ongoing worries about paper currencies. Since most investors currently hold little gold, even a modest increase in their portfolio allocation could generate notable extra demand and support further price gains.
